Evening Report — Could Trump win the national popular vote?

Evening Report

Could Trump win the national vote? New polls underscore worries for Harris, Dems

Former President Trump’s surprising strength in national opinion surveys has ignited chatter that he could be on his way to a popular vote victory over Vice President Harris, which would be a historic upset and a marked shift from the past two decades of voting trends.

That outcome is far from certain. Harris is the slight favorite to win the national vote, and she has a clear path to winning enough battleground states to reach the 270 Electoral College votes needed to secure the presidency.

But the final New York Times/Siena College poll of the cycle confirmed some worrying trends for Democrats:

Trump and Harris are tied at 48 percent in a head-to-head matchup, after Harris had a 3-point lead in the prior survey. Trump leads by 1 point when the full slate of candidates are included.
President Biden led the same poll by 9 points in 2020, and Hillary Clinton led it by 4 points in 2016. The polls dramatically underestimated Trump’s support in 2020. Biden ultimately won the national vote by 4.5 points, and he triumphed in the Electoral College by about 40,000 votes spread across three states. The national polls weren’t far off in 2016, when Clinton won by 2 points nationally, but the state polls drastically underestimated Trump’s support.

The final CNN national survey released Friday found a similar result, with Trump and Harris locked at 47 percent each.

If Trump were to win the popular vote, he'd be the first GOP candidate to accomplish that feat in 20 years and only the second in 36 years.

Per CNN elections guru Harry Enten: "Donald Trump winning the popular vote could absolutely happen. You might as well wrap your minds around it now, if you don’t like Donald Trump."

One month ago, Harris led The Hill/Decision Desk HQ average of national surveys by 4 points. Now, she clings to a 1-point lead.
In Nate Silver’s model, national polls have moved toward Trump by 1.7 points over the past month and by 1.2 points over the past week.
Every battleground state has moved toward Trump in that time, with the biggest movements happening in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which represent Harris’s likeliest path to the White House.
"[The New York Times] poll is hardly alone in showing Harris’s national lead slipping,” Silver wrote Friday. “Quite a few recent national polls show a tie or Trump slightly ahead, in fact.”

Trump is running as if he’s in the lead.

This weekend, Trump will hold a rally at Madison Square Garden in New York City, even though he has almost no chance of winning New York.
Trump hinted on TruthSocial that he may visit Virginia before Election Day. Harris leads by more than 7 points in Virginia, according to Nate Silver’s polling index. Virginia, once a reliably red state, has become bluer since former President Obama burst onto the scene. Trump lost it by 10 points to President Biden in 2020.
A new Emerson College survey finds Trump within the margin of error of Harris in New Hampshire, which has not received attention as a battleground because it was assumed to be a safely Democratic state.

Via The Hill’s Brett Samuels: "Trump and his team are entering the final stretch of the White House campaign with confidence he is on the precipice of winning a second term. Public polls show Trump in a stronger position than at the same point in his previous two campaigns, including in 2016, when he was victorious. And sources close to the campaign have described a mood of 'cautious optimism' within Trump’s orbit, citing strong internal data."

The polling shift toward Trump comes amid a historic early voting period.

More than 33 million Americans have already cast their ballots with 11 days to go before Election Day, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab.

Still, Democrats have reason to be optimistic:

Trump might not have the Electoral College advantage that he had in prior elections. He’s focused on running up the score nationally, making gains in states that won’t bring him closer to an Electoral College victory, such as New York and California.
Democrats have a compelling case to make that the polls are underestimating Harris this time around. Many pollsters are forecasting a racial realignment that might not come to fruition if Harris maintains traditional Democratic support among Black and Hispanic voters.
Harris has a massive money advantage that can be used to flood the airwaves and blanket the battlegrounds with her get-out-the-vote operations in the campaign's final days.

💡 Perspectives:

Silver Bulletin: The border may tip the election to Trump.

The Washington Examiner: Trump may be on the cusp of returning to office.

The Hill: Harris has 5 advantages down the stretch.

The Washington Post: Harris faces an impossible double standard.

Bloomberg: Why do some Black voters support Trump?

Issues & Insights: Trump’s media haters still don’t get it.

The Hill: Steve Bannon’s Oct. 29 prison release could help Trump win.

Read more:

Harris sees troubling signs in New York Times poll.
Trump gains with Hispanic men, Harris up big with white women.
Harris’s struggles with young men raise alarms for Democrats.
Harris, Obama target Black and Hispanic men as their support lags.
Harris heavily outraised and outspent Trump in early October.

Welcome to Evening Report! I'm Jonathan Easley, catching you up from the afternoon and what's coming tomorrow. Not on the list? Subscribe here.

CATCH UP QUICK

The Washington Post is not endorsing a presidential candidate for the first time in decades after owner Jeff Bezos made the decision. This follows the decision by the Los Angeles Times to not endorse in 2024.
Canada will reduce the number of immigrants allowed into the country as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau acknowledges his policy failed.
The rise of online gambling is a public health threat, according to The Lancet.
Texts from political campaigns are out of control.
Climate change is reshaping cities, both environmentally and financially.

NEW THIS AFTERNOON

Trump, Harris take final message to voters

Former President Trump and Vice President Harris have settled on their final messages as they seek to win over the dwindling number of undecided voters with 11 days to go.

Trump is pressing the case that Harris has been in the White House for the past four years, as polls show voter dissatisfaction with the direction of the country.
“She broke it, and I promise you I will fix it,” Trump said Thursday at a rally in Georgia.
You can expect to hear that phrase quite a bit in the final days, Fox News reports, assuming Trump stays on message. At a Thursday rally in Tempe, Trump went on a tangent to describe the U.S. as a “garbage can for the world.”

Harris and her Democratic allies, meanwhile, are leaning into a message that casts Trump as a “fascist” threat to democracy.

In an interview with CNN on Thursday, Hillary Clinton accused Trump of “reenacting” the 1939 Nazi rally at Madison Square Garden.
Former Trump officials, led by his one-time chief of staff John Kelly, are accusing Trump of having fascist tendencies. More than a dozen former Trump officials signed a letter supporting Kelly, who said recently that Trump praised Nazi generals for their loyalty.

There are some signs the message is cutting through:

A new ABC News survey found that about half of voters view Trump as a fascist.
Gallup found that more voters believe Trump is more likely than Harris to align himself with radicals.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) released a joint statement on Friday calling Democratic rhetoric around Nazis and fascism “dangerous.”

“Labeling a political opponent as a ‘fascist,’ risks inviting yet another would-be assassin to try robbing voters of their choice before Election Day,” they wrote.

On the policy front, Harris is leaning into reproductive rights, where she has a clear advantage over Trump. The two are holding dueling events in Texas on Friday.

On Friday, Harris will join Beyoncé and Rep. Colin Allred (R-Texas), who is running neck and neck with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), at an abortion rights rally in Houston.
Trump will hold a campaign event in Austin after his podcast with Joe Rogan to focus on border security.

The New York Times poll found Harris with a 12.5-point advantage on abortion, and Trump holding the same advantage on immigration.

Via Nate Silver: “This data tells a really clear story. Immigration and the economy are huge liabilities for Harris. In fact, they’re basically her only liabilities. They offset strong issues for her on abortion, democracy, and Trump’s personal attributes.”

💡 Perspectives:

Vox: How 'Trump is a fascist' became Harris's closing argument.

Read more:

Harris, Trump hold dueling events in Texas on Friday.
Texas Teamsters union endorses Harris before her rally.
Democrats rip Musk as billionaire takes leading role in Trump campaign.
Rogan takes center stage in election dominated by podcasts.

MEDIA

Sunday shows preview

NewsNation's "The Hill Sunday": New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D); Rep. Lisa McClain (R-Mich.).
ABC's "This Week": Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.); Independent Nebraska Senate candidate Dan Osborn.
CNN's "State of the Union": Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio); former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.).
Fox's "Fox News Sunday": Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Colorado Gov. Jared Polis (D).
NBC's "Meet the Press": Vance; Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

IN OTHER NEWS

Washington roundup: Biden apologizes to Native Americans; worries grow over election deepfakes

President Biden on Friday became the first president to apologize for U.S. policy that for years stripped Native American children away from their tribes and cultures to place them in boarding schools.

Biden addressed the Gila River Indian Community in Arizona, saying: “I have a solemn responsibility to be the first president to formally apologize to the Native people. It’s long, long, long overdue. Quite frankly, there’s no excuse this apology took 50 years to make.”

The Hill’s Lexi Lonas Cochran has a full rundown on the history of the Native American boarding schools.

Also on Friday, the Biden administration approved a lithium mining project in Nevada that local environmental activists opposed.
Both parties worry that a deepfake video could surface in the final days of the campaign that might impact the outcome. With the technology behind AI videos becoming more advanced, The Hill’s Alexander Bolton writes:

“Lawmakers in both parties have warned for months that sophisticated foreign actors are trying to influence the outcome of the presidential election, but experts say an October AI-generated bombshell could emerge from a domestic source as well.”
House Republicans are pressing Meta for answers on why they’re blocking political content on Facebook. Republicans in Missouri launched an investigation into Google over claims of censorship.
The chairman of the conservative Freedom Caucus says the North Carolina legislature should consider allocating the state’s electors to former President Trump before votes are counted. Rep. Andy Harris (D-Md.) said Hurricane Helene is making it too difficult for some people in North Carolina to vote, so the state should be awarded to Trump.
Democrats are calling for a special counsel to investigate Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner over his ties to Saudi Arabia.
Conservative Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) says the next GOP leader must call out Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) for his criticism of Trump.
The Hill’s Joseph Choi breaks down how Trump and Harris propose to lower health care costs.

🖊️ PUNDIT CORNER

"North Korean troops in Ukraine show the war's global stakes," by Dov Zakheim for The Hill.

"Veterans deserve the truth, not spin on the VA budget," by Darin Selnick for The Hill.

⏲️ COUNTDOWN

11 days until Election Day.

87 days until Inauguration Day 2025.

🗓 ON TAP TOMORROW

Saturday

Harris holds a rally in Kalamazoo, Mich., with former first lady Michelle Obama.
Trump has rallies planned in Novi, Mich., and at Penn State University.

Sunday