Evening Report — 5 days: Wisconsin, Nevada in focus

Evening Report

5 days: Trump, Harris criss-cross battlegrounds

Former President Trump and Vice President Harris are shadowing one another across the battleground states with five days to go before the polls close on the 2024 election.

In focus for both campaigns this week: Nevada, which traditionally breaks for the Democratic nominee, and Wisconsin, which was the most competitive “Blue Wall” state in 2020.

Trump and Harris both campaigned Wednesday night in Wisconsin. They’ll both return Friday for rallies in Milwaukee.
Trump and Harris are in Nevada on Thursday. Harris has stops planned in Reno this evening and Las Vegas just after midnight on the East Coast, while Trump campaigns in Henderson, the second largest city in the state.
Harris is trying to avoid becoming the first Democratic nominee in 20 years to lose Nevada, which has become more competitive in recent elections. Election analysts generally don’t read too much into early voting returns, but Jon Ralston at the Nevada Independent notes this morning that the GOP is “looking stronger than ever at this point in an election” and holds a “substantial ballot lead.”
Trump is trying to win for a second time in three elections in Wisconsin. Trump carried the Badger State by less than 1 point in 2016. President Biden won it back by less than 1 point in 2020.

While Harris appears poised to stick to the seven swing states for the final days of the campaign, Trump will hold rallies in traditionally blue states.

Trump campaigned in Albuquerque, N.M., on Thursday, where he told the crowd the visit is "good for my credentials with the Hispanic or Latino community."
He’ll travel Saturday to Salem, Va.

Does the Trump campaign believe those states are truly in play?

“Donald Trump is playing offense right now,” Republican National Committee (RNC) Chair Michael Watley told NewsNation’s Blake Burman. “We are seeing numbers. We are seeing indicators that show us that those states may be in play.”

Election analysts, meanwhile, say they have no idea who will win the race.

Via CNN polling guru Harry Enten: “This remains the closest presidential election I've ever seen... I have no idea who is going to win. I haven't had an idea of who is going to win. The polls are ridiculously close and have been for a while.”

The Trump and Harris campaigns are seizing on every misstep to try to squeeze additional votes out of a divided electorate.

Trump rode around in a garbage truck and conducted his rally in a reflective vest on Wednesday to draw attention to Biden’s disparaging remarks about his supporters.
A GOP lawmaker will introduce a resolution condemning Biden’s "garbage" remarks.
Harris seized on remarks Trump made at his Wednesday rally, saying he’d protect women whether they “like it or not.” “It actually is, I think, very offensive to women in terms of not understanding their agency, their authority, their right and their ability to make decisions about their own lives, including their own bodies,” Harris told reporters. “And this is just the latest on a series of reveals by the former president on how he thinks about women and their agency.”
Harris is stepping up her outreach to Latinos amid the fallout from Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally.

Both campaigns are striking optimistic tones in public, while bracing for a potential loss behind the scenes.

The Hill’s Brett Samuels reports that Trump is already making unfounded claims of voter fraud in Pennsylvania: "Trump is sowing doubt about the election results in Pennsylvania less than one week before Election Day, making explosive and misleading claims about fraud in the commonwealth.”
The Republican Secretary of State in Georgia, Brad Raffensperger, wrote an op-ed on Thursday in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution explaining why Georgia’s elections are secure. Georgia was ground zero for Trump’s claims about the election being stolen in 2020.
The Hill’s Amie Parnes reports that Democrats are already backbiting over who will bear responsibility should Harris lose: “While some Democrats say they are increasingly hopeful that Harris will win, others have expressed mounting frustration about a string of factors that have plagued the campaign from the outset.”

💡 Perspectives:

The Liberal Patriot: The demographics of a Trump victory — or defeat.

The Hill: Harris’s closing message must separate her vision from Biden’s.

The Hill: Could 2024 be a replay of 1980?

The New York Times: Where will the blame go?

USA Today: Biden continues Dems’ insulting rhetoric.

MSNBC: The GOP freakout over Biden’s gaffe is absurd.

Slate: Stein could play spoiler for Dems.

The Wall Street Journal: Three types of voters will decide 2024.

The New Republic: The battle for the most important county in the country.

Intelligencer: Dems used to run on education. What happened?

Read more:

Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) did Joe Rogan's podcast.
Election fraud rare in US elections, despite persistent claims otherwise.
White House seeks to contain damage from Biden’s ‘garbage’ remarks.
Trump seeks to press advantage from Biden’s ‘garbage’ gaffe.
Nikki Haley tells voters they “can’t be emotional” and must elect Trump.
Joe Rogan says he warned comedian against Puerto Rico joke.
Oil bigwigs open wallets for Trump after billion-dollar request.

Welcome to Evening Report! I'm Jonathan Easley, catching you up from the afternoon and what's coming tomorrow. Not on the list? Subscribe here.

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Los Angeles sees bus burned, store thefts and rowdy crowds after Dodgers win World Series.
Biden administration officials are headed back to the Middle East as optimism grows about a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.
House Republicans referred former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) to the Justice Department for criminal charges, alleging he lied to Congress.
A new poll from the Economist/YouGov finds many Americans don't plan to celebrate Halloween, but some Democrats are getting in the spirit. The viral 2024 costume on the left: Dressing up like Tim Walz. See who's getting in on the Midwest-dad action here, here, here, here and here.

NEW THIS AFTERNOON

More than half of Americans say they plan to vote early

More than 62 million Americans have already cast their ballots, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab.

The latest Gallup survey finds that about half of those who intend to vote say they have already done so or plan to vote before Election Day.
In North Carolina, 3.6 million have voted, making it the highest number of ballots cast in any of the swing states. About half of registered voters have already participated in the election, according to state data.
If the Gallup survey ends up inline with final voting numbers, it would put 2024 turnout somewhere close to the lower-turnout election of 2016 rather than 2020.

How are Americans feeling less than a week out from Nov. 5?

Frustrated and anxious, according to the latest Associated Press-NORC survey.

The polls aren’t moving:

Nate Silver’s model gives Trump a 53 percent chance of victory, which is effectively no different than a coin toss: "The forecast remains extremely stable and extremely close to 50/50. Trump made real gains in mid-October, but the forecast is ~unchanged from 10-12 days ago. We think people are getting a little carried away with narratives about momentum, etc."
The Hill/Decision Desk HQ model also gives Trump a 53 percent chance of victory.

Republicans are expected to win the Senate, but it might be closer than expected.

One Republican strategist told The Hill’s Al Weaver that anything less than a 52-seat majority will be a major disappointment. That would mean the GOP holding in every red state, and flipping West Virginia, Montana and Ohio.
Independent Dan Osborn continues to keep GOP strategists up at night in Nebraska, where Sen. Deb Fischer (R) is locked in a tight one. Osborn says he won’t caucus with Democrats if elected.
The Washington Post reports on how the battle for the House could come down to a handful of seats in deep blue California, where Democrats in competitive races hope to get a boost from Harris.

Read more:

Florida Dem chair: Jews starting to ‘question the Democratic Party.’
Why millions of Americans in Puerto Rico, other territories can’t vote.
Billionaires have business interests hinging on election outcome.

IN OTHER NEWS

Pennsylvania courts flooded with election lawsuits

A judge in Pennsylvania declined to move forward with a lawsuit against Elon Musk seeking to end his $1 million daily giveaway to supporters who sign his petition supporting the Constitution. The state court put the lawsuit on hold as a federal court weighs whether to take it up. Democrats are accusing Musk of paying people to register to vote.
Pennsylvania Democrats filed a lawsuit against Erie County on Thursday, arguing that many voters have not received their mail-in ballots yet. Erie County has voted with the eventual winner in the past four presidential election cycles.
A Pennsylvania judge ruled in favor of former President Trump and GOP Senate candidate Dave McCormick (Pa.), saying voters in Bucks County will have more time to return their mail-in ballots after some voters were turned away from the polls due to long lines.
Independent candidate Cornel West filed an emergence appeal with the Supreme Court as he seeks to get on the ballot in Pennsylvania.
A Pennsylvania appeals court ruled that timely mail ballots with improper dates should be counted.