Election Day: It's down to the wire for Harris, Trump

Campaign Report

The Big Story

Election Day: It's down to the wire for Harris, Trump

It’s here... After a bizarre and bitter campaign battle, the race between Vice President Harris and former President Trump is coming to a close, as are crucial House and Senate races.

Harris and Trump have been locked in a head-to-head battle for the White House for weeks, and now it’s time for voters to decide — if they haven’t already — which candidate should claim the White House.

The Hill/Decision Desk HQ forecast gives Trump a 52 percent chance of winning, but as the forecasters note, that’s essentially a toss-up.

More than 82 million ballots were cast during early voting periods before Election Day.

All eyes will be on seven crucial swing states as Harris and Trump try to claim the 270 electoral votes needed to win.

Harris has made a big push for three states collectively dubbed the “blue wall” — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Meanwhile, Trump has also heavily courted the electorate in Pennsylvania and as well as the southern states up for grabs: Georgia and North Carolina.

Polls will begin closing at 6 p.m. Eastern in some states. Here are the closing times in the battlegrounds (all times Eastern):

Georgia at 7 p.m.
North Carolina at 7:30 p.m.
Pennsylvania at 8 p.m.
Michigan at 8 p.m. (selected precincts at 9 p.m.)
Arizona and Wisconsin at 9 p.m.
Nevada at 10 p.m.

The presidential race may not be called by the end of the day, but some state vote tallies will begin rolling in just after the polls, particularly where the outcome is already predictable. It could be days before final vote results are called in the presidential race, though.

Both Harris and Trump have found familiar places to spend election night. Harris will be at her college alma mater Howard University, while Trump will be watching from his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Fla.

In addition to the presidential race, control of Congress, which is currently narrowly divided with Republicans leading the House and Democrats in charge in the Senate, also is up for grabs.

The Hill/DDHQ forecast has Republicans with a 52 percent chance of keeping the House and a 76 percent chance the GOP will take the Senate.

Montana, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan are considered the seats that could potentially flip from Democratic to the GOP, and West Virginia is already expected to be a slam dunk flip for Republicans.

👀 The Hill has live updates to watch throughout the day here.

Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, I'm Liz Crisp. Each week we track the key stories you need to know to stay ahead of the 2024 election and who will set the agenda in Washington.

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Essential Reads

Key election stories and other recent campaign coverage:

Election Day 2024 live updates: Voters head to polls to decide tight Trump-Harris race

Vice President Harris and former President Trump face the moment of truth on Election Day as voters around the country head to the polls. The race has remained stubbornly deadlocked for weeks, with many pundits acknowledging it’s essentially a jump ball. The Hill and Decision Desk HQ’s polling aggregate finds Harris and Trump tied nationally at 48 percent. Harris will watch results come in at her alma mater of Howard …

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Why is Trump allowed to vote in Florida after felony conviction?

Former President Trump cast his ballot in Florida on Election Day, despite his 34 felony convictions in New York. While Florida has some of the strictest laws in the country against felons voting, Trump’s hush money conviction did not disqualify him from the voting booth. If a Florida resident is convicted of a felony in another state, they lose their voter eligibility only if such a conviction would make them ineligible …

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Mike Johnson on certifying election results: ‘Everybody needs to calm down’

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said “everybody needs to calm down” when asked about election certification, adding that there’s been too much “emotion” and “misinformation.” When asked by EWTN News reporter Mark Irons if he would do his part to certify the election results regardless of who wins, Johnson said “Of course.” “We have a free and fair election, we’re …

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The Countdown

Upcoming news themes and events we're watching:

It’s Election Day!
76 days until the 2025 inauguration.

In Other News

Branch out with a different read from The Hill:

Michigan on pace to break voter turnout records, official says

Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) said Tuesday that the Great Lake State, a critical battleground in the presidential race, is on track to break voter turnout records. “Michiganders are already voting in record numbers. It’s a great thing for voters and for democracy,” Benson told reporters at a morning news conference in Detroit, where she noted “the eyes of the nation are on us.” “Already 45.8 …

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McCarthy says there are no undecided voters: ‘That’s a myth’

Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said undecided voters are a “myth” during an Election Day appearance on Fox News. “I learned that pollings are never right. When election comes, you learn what was wrong in the polling,” McCarthy said in a clip posted to Grabien. He later said a number of Republican voters opt out of surveys, which skews results. “Nate Cohn writes that Republicans are 16 percent less likely to answer …

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Around the Nation

Local and state headlines regarding campaigns and elections:

Texas’s Paxton declines to join call by AGs for peaceful transfer of power (Texas Tribune)
Ballots from Americans abroad challenged for lack of Pennsylvania voter registrations (Patriot-News)
Fed up with U.S. politics, some Californians are making plans to move abroad (Los Angeles Times)

What We're Reading

Election news we've flagged from other outlets:

Hypnosis? Colonoscopy? What some people will do to avoid Election Day. (The Washington Post)
Facing Extinction, Britain’s Aristocrats Make a Curious Case for Survival (Wall Street Journal)
Whether Trump or Harris, Pessimism Reigns in Russia Over U.S. Election Winner (The New York Times)

Elsewhere Today

Key stories on The Hill right now:

Trump rips Fox News’s election morning coverage

Former President Trump railed against Fox News on Tuesday morning for playing clips of a speech Oprah Winfrey gave in support of Vice President Harris. Calling Oprah a “divider” who should be “ashamed of herself,” Trump took aim at the top-watched cable news channel for covering the talk show host’s remarks. … Read more

Buttigieg clashes with Fox’s Kilmeade: ‘Is this an interview or a debate?’

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg sparred with Fox News’s Brian Kilmeade over electric vehicles (EV) during an interview on “Fox and Friends” Tuesday. “Is this an interview or a debate? Can I at least finish the sentence?” Buttigieg asked after the two clashed over reliance on Chinese components for … Read more

What People Think

Opinions related to campaigns and elections submitted to The Hill: