Dems hold slight edge in California swing House districts
If the road to a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives runs through California, a new poll suggests Democrats are narrowly on track to get there.
The survey, conducted by researchers at the University of Southern California, California State University Long Beach and Cal Poly Pomona, found Democratic candidates to be slightly ahead of Republicans in four of the state’s six most closely-watched swing districts.
But those contests all remain incredibly close, and Democrats’ advantage was within the survey’s margin of error for each race.
“If the Democrats control the House in 2024, it’s probably because four or five of these districts flip,” said Christian Grose, a political science professor at USC and the lead pollster. “It truly is so close that everything on the margins can make a difference.”
The poll offers a rare glimpse into battleground races across California, which aren’t often polled. And it did find one major advantage for Democrats: The party’s voters tend to be much more excited than their Republican counterparts about the House candidates on the ballot. Grose said that enthusiasm, coupled with higher turnout in a presidential election, could help the party flip seats in the Central Valley and Orange County suburbs.
That said, he noted most Republican incumbents in purple districts are polling far better than former President Donald Trump and Republican Senate candidate Steve Garvey. Grose said that suggests Republicans could offset the momentum Democrats are enjoying with Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket by convincing voters to cast split ballots.
Key highlights from the survey of likely voters, which was exclusively shared with Playbook:
— Democrat George Whitesides is leading Republican incumbent Mike Garcia by slightly more than one percentage point, 44 to 43 percent. The district, CA-27 (Santa Clarita and northern Los Angeles County), voted overwhelmingly for Biden in 2020, but Garcia has shown “resilience” and tends to outperform the rest of the Republican ticket in his district, Grose said.
— Democrat Derek Tran is leading Republican incumbent Michelle Steel by nearly two points, 45 to 43 percent. The suburban Orange County district, CA-45, is deeply purple, but Grose said Steel has typically outperformed GOP registration.
— In the Central Valley, Democrat Rudy Salas is four points ahead of Republican incumbent David Valadao, the largest margin of any swing-seat challenger. Salas leads 43 to 39 percent in CA-22 (Bakersfield and Kern County). One district over, Democrat Adam Gray leads Republican incumbent John Duarte by two points, roughly 44 to 42 percent in CA-13 (Merced County). Grose cautioned that both of their leads fall within the poll’s 6 percent margin of error for their districts. Grose noted that the rural Central Valley is notoriously difficult to poll due to low voter engagement.
— Republican incumbent Ken Calvert and Democrat Will Rollins are dead even, each receiving the support of 46 percent of likely voters. Their race in CA-41 (Palm Springs and Riverside County) is perhaps the most competitive in the state due to Rollins peeling “off a small but significant number” of GOP-leaning voters. Calvert was the only GOP candidate included in the poll who underperformed Trump and Garvey in his district.
— Scott Baugh is the only swing-district Republican candidate in the poll who is leading his Democratic opponent. He’s ahead of Democrat David Min by nearly four points, backed by more than 46 percent of those surveyed. The two are competing for an open seat in CA-47 (Orange County) held by outgoing Democratic Rep. Katie Porter. The district leans Democratic, but the poll found Min’s arrest on drunken driving charges last year has hurt him with voters.
— Pollsters also looked at two competitive Dem-on-Dem congressional races in the Bay Area. In Oakland, Lateefah Simon has a 13-point lead over Jennifer Tran in the race for retiring Rep. Barbara Lee’s seat in CA-12. In the South Bay, Sam Liccardo is nearly 11 points ahead of rival Evan Low as they duke it out for Rep. Anna Eshoo’s seat in CA-16.
The survey was conducted Sept. 14-21 and included different polling sample sizes for each district.
Like this content? Consider signing up for POLITICO’s California Playbook newsletter.
Date: | |
Tag: | California |
-
The New York Times - Top stories
Republicans’ Electoral College Edge, Once Seen as Ironclad, Looks to Be Fading
A review of the evidence that Donald Trump’s advantage relative to the national popular vote has declined significantly.9 minutes ago -
CNBC - Business
It's not a great fall housing market, but this is 'as good as it gets,' economist says
Mortgage rates are lower and more homes are for sale in some areas. Here's what to expect in the housing market this fall.18 minutes ago -
CBS News - Top stories
House to vote on 3-month funding extension to avoid shutdown
The House is set to vote Wednesday on a stopgap measure to keep the government funded for three months.19 minutes ago -
NBC News - Politics
House to vote to condemn Biden, Harris and others over 2021 Afghanistan withdrawal
The House is set to vote to formally condemn President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and other officials over their handling of the 2021 U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.34 minutes ago - Joe Biden -
MarketWatch - Business
Trump social-media stock ‘DJT’ rises as insiders hold on to their shares
Trump Media & Technology Group Inc.’s stock was up on Wednesday as a two-day deadline passed with no fresh filings from insiders selling stock.44 minutes ago - Donald Trump -
CBS News - Top stories
Country star Mickey Guyton debuts music video clip from "House on Fire"
Country music star Mickey Guyton, who made history as the first Black woman nominated for Best Country Solo Performance at the Grammys, shares an exclusive clip from her upcoming music video for ...54 minutes ago -
The Hill - Politics
Watch live: House considers legislation on stopgap funding bill
House Republicans are racing to figure out a compromise to the latest budget standoff among factions within their party. Because of the infighting, any package will need at least some votes from ...1 hour ago -
The New York Times - Top stories
House to Vote on Short-Term Spending Bill to Avert a Shutdown
Speaker Mike Johnson is once again turning to Democrats to supply the bulk of the votes to keep federal funding flowing through Dec. 20.1 hour ago -
ABC News - Top stories
3rd house collapses in 4 days on North Carolina coast
A third house has collapsed in four days on the North Carolina coast as officials closed off the beach due to dangerous debris on the shore and in the water.2 hours ago -
The Hill - Politics
Harris holds 7-point lead over Trump in national survey
Vice President Harris now holds a 7-point lead over former President Trump, according to a new national survey. The survey, conducted by Reuters and Ipsos, found Harris leading with 46.61 percent ...2 hours ago - Donald Trump -
CNBC - Business
Mortgage refinance boom takes hold, as weekly demand surges 20%
Applications to refinance a home loan surged 20% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index.2 hours ago -
ABC News - Top stories
California governor signs bills to bolster gun control
California Gov. Gavin Newsom has signed several measures to bolster the state's gun safety laws2 hours ago - California -
ABC News - Top stories
California schools required to restrict cellphone usage in classrooms
School in California will now be required to limit or ban the usage of smartphones in schools under a new state law.2 hours ago - California -
The Guardian - World
California bears make themselves at home as humans build closer to nature
Residents in Sierra Madre report increased bear sightings – and some bears are finding their way into homes and yards. Humans are building homes closer to the forest in southern California, and ...3 hours ago - California -
MarketWatch - Business
My wife and I immigrated to the U.S. with our son, 25. We have $45,000. Do we buy a house in California — or save our money?
“We are all naturalized citizens. We have a small savings of over $45,000 deposited in a high-yield savings account.”3 hours ago -
BBC News - Top stories
Men deny house fire murders of mother and children
Mohammed Shabir and Calum Sunderland deny murdering Bryonie Gawith and her three children in Bradford.4 hours ago -
The Guardian - World
US House expected to pass government funding package to avert shutdown
Mike Johnson unveiled legislation after original measure with non-citizen voting proposal failed to pass last week . The US House will vote Wednesday on a three-month government funding package, ...5 hours ago -
NBC News - Top stories
House poised to pass a bill to avert a shutdown after dropping Trump voting plan
The House is poised to pass a bill to avoid a government shutdown after removing a Donald Trump-backed proposal requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote.5 hours ago - Donald Trump -
The Hill - Politics
House GOP feels déjà vu as new funding fight ends with no wins
House Republicans are feeling dejected as they prepare to kick yet another shutdown deadline down the road without securing major wins, an outcome some blame on their own dysfunction. Once again, ...5 hours ago -
NBC News - Top stories
Elise Stefanik pushes to expand House GOP majority with record number of women
Rep. Elise Stefanik, the highest-ranking GOP woman in the House, is leading a charge to break the record for Republican women serving in the chamber, just six years after a blue wave wiped out ...6 hours ago -
The New York Times - Top stories
Republicans Pick Up Unlikely Allies in Key House Races: Unions
Democrats still dominate with organized labor. But in must-win swing races, Republicans are peeling off some union support, and feeling the benefits.8 hours ago - Republican Party -
ABC News - Sports
Royals seize on throwing error in 10th to beat Nationals 1-0 and hold on to 2nd AL wild card
Kyle Isbel snapped Kansas City’s 27-inning scoreless streak by sprinting home on a throwing error in the 10th inning, Cole Ragans gave up three hits in six innings, and the Royals held on to the ...11 hours ago -
CNBC - Business
Biden administration backs House Republicans' three-month government funding bill
Former President Donald Trump earlier this month told congressional Republicans to shut down the government if the SAVE Act got cut from the spending bill.17 hours ago - Joe Biden -
Politico - Politics
House GOP moves toward holding Blinken in contempt of Congress
Yesterday -
Politico - Politics
House Republicans pivot to fast-tracking funding bill amid conservative opposition
Yesterday - Republican Party -
Politico - Politics
Top House GOP super PAC adds 2 new seats to its ad campaign
Yesterday -
Politico - Politics
House passes bill to bolster presidential nominee security
5 days ago -
Politico - Politics
House set to vote on bill to increase Secret Service protection for presidential candidates
5 days ago -
Politico - Politics
Trump assassination attempt task force to hold first hearing
5 days ago - Donald Trump -
Politico - Politics
Secret Service tells House task force that agency has increased Trump’s security
6 days ago -
Politico - Politics
Hours before vote, Trump again presses House GOP on short-term spending bill
6 days ago - Donald Trump -
Politico - Politics
Passage prospects dim as Johnson’s spending plan heads to House floor
September 18 -
Politico - Politics
Andy Harris wins House Freedom Caucus chairmanship
September 17
More from Politico
-
Politico - Politics
House GOP moves toward holding Blinken in contempt of Congress
Yesterday -
Politico - Politics
House Republicans pivot to fast-tracking funding bill amid conservative opposition
Yesterday - Republican Party -
Politico - Politics
Top House GOP super PAC adds 2 new seats to its ad campaign
Yesterday -
Politico - Politics
Hogan allies make big move in Maryland Senate race
Yesterday -
Politico - Politics
Bipartisan stopgap plan faces first hurdle: A conservative trio
Yesterday