Democrats' headaches multiply in battle for Senate

Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith’s (D) decision to not run for reelection in 2026 is adding another headache for Democrats trying to win back control of the Senate in two years.

Smith became the second Senate Democrat to announce their retirement in the past few weeks after Sen. Gary Peters (Mich.) also decided against seeking another term last month. Michigan is more solidly a battleground state than the Democratic-leaning Minnesota, which hasn’t elected a Republican senator in more than two decades.

But Smith’s retirement has offered Republicans a unique opening for the seat, likely requiring Democrats to put up some defense to keep it within the fold.

“I think there's no question potentially this could expand the battleground map, right?” said Democratic strategist and attorney Abou Amara. “And so anytime you're expanding the map to defend, that means you've got to have resources to do that.”

“I think part of whoever becomes the candidate or the nominee is really going to need to show polling to move this race from a kind of a tier — tier two, if you will, and move it down the list, as opposed to, you know, Minnesota being moved up the list to a tier-one battleground,” he added.

Democrats, who lost their Senate majority after November, are looking to curb further losses in the upper chamber as they defend seats in Michigan and Georgia in 2026. Democrats will likely also have their eye on defending the seats held by Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) and Mark Warner (D-Va.), though the two comfortably won their last elections in 2018 by double-digit margins.

That's compounded by the fact that many Senate Republicans seeking reelection are in more reliably red states, giving Democrats fewer opportunities to pick off incumbents. Some of their best chances lie in Maine and North Carolina, for example, where Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) are up for reelection.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) lauded Smith in a statement, calling her “smart, compassionate, and tireless” while also exuding confidence about the party’s prospects in the North Star State.

“We have a strong bench in Minnesota and I’m confident that we’ll keep her seat blue,” he said.

Democrats who have expressed interest or could make the jump include Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, Minnesota Secretary of State Steve Simon, Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison, state House Democratic Leader Melissa Hortman and Reps. Ilhan Omar and Angie Craig, among others. Former Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) has signaled he’s not looking to run for his seat.

Names floated on the GOP side or those who have expressed interest include former Senate candidate and former NBA player Royce White, who lost to Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) in November; state Sen. Julia Coleman, the daughter-in-law of former Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.); state Sen. Karin Housley; former NBC NFL reporter Michele Tafoya; and former gubernatorial candidate Kendall Qualls.

Still, Democrats feel good about their prospects in the state, particularly since former Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) was the last Republican to win a statewide office in 2006, when he won reelection. Pawlenty ruled out a run himself.

“I think a lot of this at this point is the DFL figuring out who their candidate is going to be, and I don't think that's going to take away from any other Senate — any other dollars in any other Senate seats around the country,” said Corey Day, a former executive director for the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) Party.

David Bergstein, a spokesperson for Senate Democrats’ campaign arm, noted in a statement to The Hill that no Republican has won a Minnesota Senate race in 20 years and said Democrats will hold the seat in 2026.

But that hasn’t stopped Republicans from suggesting that Smith’s seat could help them expand their map while acknowledging the steep climb ahead.

“I think they are,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said in an interview on Fox News’s “America’s Newsroom” on Friday, when asked if Michigan and Minnesota were pickup opportunities for Republicans.

“I mean, those are open seats. Minnesota is arguably slightly harder than Michigan,” he continued. “Both are states that we haven't elected a Republican senator to from — in a long time. But I think that these are different times and people are looking for change in this country. And I think even states that have traditionally been blue states present opportunities for us.”

Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), the chair of Senate Republicans’ campaign arm for the 2026 cycle, declared the state is in play and the GOP will “play to win.”

Republicans also sense a potential opening now that Ken Martin has been elected chair of the Democratic National Committee, which will leave Democrats looking to fill his spot as Minnesota DFL chair. Martin has served as the chair of the state party for the past 14 years, overseeing significant electoral victories statewide.

State GOP Chair Alex Plechash said Martin has been a “very effective” party chair, but the Republicans now have an advantage in not having to oppose a longtime incumbent chair on the other side.

“I think that too is an opportunity for us and adds to the opportunity that we've got here turning the state red next year,” he said.

Plechash said the Senate race won’t be easy, but it might be easier not having to oppose an incumbent in Smith. He said Minnesota is trending in the rightward direction despite the lack of statewide wins recently, noting the close races in the state in the past few years.

President Trump only lost Minnesota by about 1.5 points in 2016 and by 4 points last year. Republican Jim Schultz lost the attorney general race in 2022 by less than 1 point, while Republican Ryan Wilson lost a race for auditor that year by just more than 1 point.

Meanwhile, the state Legislature is narrowly divided with a 1-seat Democratic majority in the state Senate, while Republicans temporarily enjoy a 1-seat majority in the state House.

“We do have national backing at the top, and we have a fired-up grassroots movement, so I think we're positioned to break through and win these statewide races for the first time in recent state history,” Plechash said about the state races up for election in 2026.

Kathryn Pearson, an associate professor of political science at the University of Minnesota, said if Smith had run for reelection, she didn’t think serious Republican challengers to her would emerge, but her retirement makes it a contest.

“It is still a state that leans Democratic, but in a competitive election year, it could be a close race and anything could happen,” she said.

Even though Democrats will still be likely favored to hold on to the seat, the attention that both parties will give to it could make winning back control of the Senate more difficult. In Cook Political Report’s initial overview of the 2026 Senate map, Republicans are favored to hold on to control of the body.

“Both parties will spend money in Minnesota,” Pearson said. “Will they spend as much money in Minnesota as Michigan? Probably not. But I think it also depends on who the candidates are.”

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