Democrats have a diversity problem — The GOP is gaining non-white support

In the last several months you may have said, “How can they vote for a Republican, they are (fill in the blank with a non-white group)?” Well, if you have, I have bad news for you. You may not understand diversity. During the homestretch of the 2024 election, we heard stories of Democrats struggling to hold on to non-white groups that have traditionally supported them. Just how much of a drop off remains to be seen and Vice President Kamala Harris can still easily win this election. But the Democrats must come to terms with the fact that in trying to be the party that represents everyone, they have alienated some of the people they claim to best represent.

America is a wonderfully diverse country and will only get more diverse despite promises from some politicians to somehow reverse that. And in this wonderous melting pot, we are finding out that there is diversity within that diversity. As different groups grow, excel and spread out they are finding that they are themselves dividing along political lines too. Don’t believe me? Look at Latinos, Asians, and now, Black men. Latinos and Asians both had over 30 percent of each group vote for Donald Trump in 2020. Those numbers might rise for the 2024 election. And more polls have shown that Black men have been gravitating toward the GOP.

How does this happen? Well, the American Dream is a big part of it. Republicans who were dreading the thought of white Americans becoming a majority-minority, saw that as Latinos, Asians, Black Americans and other groups have risen in socio-economic status over the last two generations, they have diversified their needs politically. As these groups have moved into upper middle class standing, they have developed needs that put them at odds with Democratic policies. Whether it is taxes, immigration, running a business or cultural values, there is no doubt that non-white groups have found some kinship with what the Republicans offer.

The second reason is religion. We have all heard that there are fewer Christians in the United States as we have diversified. And some MAGA Republicans have run fear campaigns that America is losing its Christian identity. Well maybe white Christians, but the people who are coming in to this country (both legally and not) are overwhelmingly Christian. Catholicism will continue to grow as people arrive from Central and South America as well as Asia, Africa and the Middle East. And as these groups have settled in America, they have found more commonality with those who would share their religious values.

Republicans have also not been shy about reaching out to groups that they have been outright hostile too in the past. Trump, who once tried to implement a Muslim ban, now has unleashed surrogates to Muslim communities to court their votes. And they have been even more aggressive in outreach with Black men. Yes, the party that was hostile to police reform after George Floyd has made inroads into the Black male population. Why is this?

Republicans are making progress because they project an air of exclusivity. And let me tell you something, people love to feel they are part of an exclusive club. In an effort to appease everyone from union workers in Michigan to LBGTQ+ communities to Black Americans to Mexican Americans to ultra progressives to Republican moderates to everyone in between, the Democrats sometimes seem like they are talking to everyone without talking to anyone. And Republicans have taken that and leveraged enough individuals in those groups into being seen and removing them from their identity demographic.

Are these non-white Republican numbers going to make up a majority in those groups? Probably not, but the Republicans don’t need that. They need just enough, and they know it. The group of Republicans who have shown a disdain for the diversification of America have a bitter pill to swallow. If Trump has any dreams of winning, the tipping point will be inclusion of non-white Americans.

Which brings us to the Democrats. Kamala Harris has run a very disciplined, organized and well-received campaign. She can easily win this election, and the Democrats will pat themselves on the back about how she unified progressives, independents and some Republicans based on their aversion to Trump. But Trump won't be around forever.

Democrats need to heed the warning in the numbers. The prejudice they have about non-whites only being Democrats needs to end immediately. We don’t claim that white Americans can only fall under one political position. So why do we continue to do that with non-white Americans?

Jos Joseph is a master’s candidate at the Harvard Extension School at Harvard University. He is a Marine veteran who served in Iraq and lives in Anaheim, Calif.