Democrats' election abortion strategy falls flat

Democrats’ strategy of tying former President Trump and Republicans to abortion bans across the country appeared to fall flat with voters on Tuesday.

Democrats saw major victories on the issue in the 2022 midterms and Virginia’s off-year elections in 2023, but the party largely underperformed up and down the ballot on the issue with key groups on election night.

A CNN exit poll showed voters ranking abortion as the third most important issue, behind democracy and the economy. Additionally, the same CNN exit poll showed 65 percent of voters saying abortion should be legal in all or most cases, yet the same voters did not tie the issue to Trump and down-ballot Republicans, puncturing the case for Democrats that abortion could be Republicans’ electoral Achilles’ heel.

“I think the biggest obstacle to the Democratic messaging was that Donald Trump had made very clear he did not support a national ban on abortion, and yet, every major candidate ran on the platform of Donald Trump is going to pass a national ban on abortion,” explained National Right to Life President Carol Tobias. “So it just – it didn't ring true.”

The issue of abortion was seen as a galvanizing force during the 2022 midterms in the wake of the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade, blunting Republicans’ expected “red wave.”

The issue also proved to resonate with voters during the 2023 cycle, helping Democrats win complete control of the Virginia state legislature, pass a ballot measure to enshrine abortion protections into the Ohio constitution and helping Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) win a second term in office.

On the campaign trail, Democrats leaned into the issue of abortion again, seeing it as one of the best issues motivating their base and key voting blocs.

“It is a fight for the future, and it is a fight for freedom — for freedom,” Vice President Harris told supporters at a campaign event in Atlanta in September.

“And we all know how we got here. When Donald Trump was president, he hand-selected three members of the United States Supreme Court — the court of Thurgood and RBG — with the intention that they would overturn the protections of Roe v. Wade. And as he intended, they did,” she said later. “And now more than 20 states have Trump abortion bans — extremists that have passed laws that criminalize health care providers, doctors and nurses, and punish women.”

While Republicans have certainly struggled to respond to Democratic attacks on abortion over the past two years, GOP strategists point to how the issue played differently in a presidential election compared to a midterm or off-year election.

“This is about the future direction of the country,” said one GOP strategist. “Yes, looking backwards on people’s records will impact if people view you as credible but they really want to hear what you’re going to do going forward.”

Republicans also argue that the economy was always going to dominate in a presidential election.

“They totally missed, I don’t know how because they have James Carville in their party who once told them it’s the economy, stupid,” the strategist said. “Well, now I’m using it in the past tense. It was the economy, stupid. That’s what this was about and they failed to recognize it.”

Abortion advocates did receive some wins on Tuesday night – in the form of several abortion ballots that would enshrine protections around reproductive freedoms into state Constitutions, which passed in several states like Arizona and Maryland, while failing in others like Florida. Yet, abortion itself didn’t necessarily translate into a winning issue up the ballot for candidates who needed it most.

Some Democrats suggested it’s possible voters didn’t see abortion rights as entwined with other issues, like the economy.

“First, last night showed that preserving abortion rights is still a potent message for a majority of voters, even in red states that Trump carried easily. But in places where it didn't translate to wins at the top of the ticket, it could be that voters saw it in isolation-- not as an economic issue as well as a rights issue,” explained Democratic strategist Christy Setzer in a Wednesday email.

“Ads focused on rights being taken away, on women dying-- and that's powerful-- but it's possible Trump's efforts to obscure his intent for a national ban worked, and voters didn't blame him for it,” she added.

Virginia GOP strategist Zack Roday explained there were different factors around why abortion ended up being less of a motivating force for Democrats this time, noting that voters weigh voting for president differently than that for senator or congressman.

“They're hiring a president because they believe the president will keep the country safe. [The] president will at least attempt to tackle the cost of living challenge. I mean, in large part, the contrast here was that, hey, the Trump years are better than the Biden-Harris years, so I'm going to go back to that,” Roday, who served as coordinated campaign director for Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s (R) 2023 legislative effort, also noted.

“The issue battle was not able to be waged on just one single issue that favors Democrats, and that was easier to do in the midterms,” he added.

At the same time, that doesn’t mean the issue of abortion hurt Democrats. DJ Quinlan, a former executive director for the Arizona Democratic Party, said the ballot measure Arizonans passed that enshrines abortion protections into the state Constitution aided the party’s turnout on Tuesday.

“I do think there's room for a conversation, as we're analyzing the results, to talk about whether talking about abortion at the expense of everything else, particularly the economy, might have been a contributing factor,” Quinlan noted.

“I think the major lesson for Democrats – we have a fundamental weakness in terms of our economic brand, and we cannot win until we improve our economic brand with blue collar voters,” added Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, who did work for independent expenditure groups in the presidential election.

Republican strategist Ford O’Connell critiqued Harris's and Democrats’ messaging on the issue, arguing that abortion was not necessarily a top concern for all women.

“People don’t want to be put in boxes or told what to think,” O’Connell said. “They want to be heard.”