Democratic field for New Jersey governor’s race wide open: Poll

The Democratic field in the New Jersey gubernatorial race appears wide open with a half dozen major candidates in contention, according to an early survey of the race.

The Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill poll released Thursday showed the candidates generally within the margin of error of each other and most voters’ support up for grabs. Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) narrowly leads with 10 percent, while New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka tied for second with 8 percent, followed by Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) and former New Jersey Senate President Stephen Sweeney with 7 percent.

Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop received 4 percent.

But 56 percent said they were undecided, which Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said “leaves room for any candidate in the race to consolidate support.”

On the GOP side, former state Assembly member and 2021 Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli has more of a lead in what is also a crowded field, with 26 percent. Radio talk show host Bill Spadea came in second with 13 percent, while state Sen. Jon Bramnick, a former state Assembly minority leader, received 4 percent.

All other candidates received 3 percent or less.

But 47 percent said they were undecided, and Kimball said Ciattarelli is the early favorite but presumably has an advantage in name recognition currently.

The New Jersey governor’s race will be one of the most high-profile contests in 2025 along with the Virginia governor’s race. The two states are the only ones in the country that hold their gubernatorial elections in the year following the presidential election.

Both have often been seen as indicators of public reaction to the current administration.

Incumbent New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D) narrowly won reelection in 2021 by a few points over Ciattarelli, but he is term-limited, giving numerous state Democrats the opportunity to jump in the race.

The election will also come after a Republican presidential candidate came the closest to carrying New Jersey in a few decades. Vice President Harris won the state over President Trump by about 6 points, still not a razor-tight margin but much closer than the double-digit wins recent Democratic presidential candidates have enjoyed in the state.

New Jersey voters’ view of Trump is about even, with 48 percent viewing him favorably and 46 percent viewing him unfavorably. Murphy is also about even, with a favorability rating of 44 percent and unfavorability rating of 42 percent.

Voters are accordingly split 50-50 on whether the state is heading in the right direction. But economic issues appear likely to be top of mind in the race, with 63 percent saying their family’s income is falling behind the cost of living.

On the list of most important issues facing voters, the economy came in first with 44 percent, followed by housing affordability with 21 percent, immigration with 8 percent and healthcare with 7 percent.

The poll was conducted from Jan. 18 to 21 among 1,000 registered voters, including 437 Democratic primary voters and 334 Republican primary voters. The confidence interval, similar to margin of error, for the full sample was 3 points, for Democrats was 4.6 points and for Republicans was 5.3 points.

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