House Democrats are sending an early warning shot as the government’s borrowing window inches to a close: winning Democratic support for a debt-ceiling hike will come at a cost for Republicans.
The minority-party Democrats have little power to dictate the debate, but a number of conservative Republicans have long opposed debt limit increases to protest deficit spending. The dynamics could give Democrats leverage in the fight — and they say they intend to use it.
“We’d want to negotiate, because we know they’ve got a lot of Freedom Caucus folks who would never vote for a debt ceiling,” Rep. Ami Bera (D-Calif.) said.
“Of course we don't want a default,” he continued. “But if they're asking for our votes, there's other things — like the Department of Education — that are relatively important.”
Rep. Pete Aguilar (Calif.), chair of the House Democratic Caucus, delivered a similar message.
“We'll have those caucus family discussions,” he said. “But I think we all subscribe to the Nancy Pelosi model that nothing should be given away for free."
The deadline for the Treasury Department’s borrowing authority remains unclear, and GOP leaders remain confident they’ll have the time to include a debt limit increase in an emerging package of policy priorities and spending cuts at the heart of President Trump’s domestic agenda. That legislation is expected to move on a special procedural track, known as reconciliation, that would cut Democrats from the debate altogether.
Yet recent reports have revealed that government revenues are expected to plummet this year, partly as a result of Trump’s efforts to gut the IRS and other disruptions.
That development could accelerate the default deadline and force Republicans to pursue an alternative strategy outside of their reconciliation bill — one that would likely require Democratic buy-in.
What that Plan B might look like, and how Democrats respond, could be the next big fight on Capitol Hill, posing huge risks for both sides.
For Republicans, who control both chambers, it would mean rallying their troops behind a proposal that’s long been unpopular within their ranks, particularly among conservatives who oppose any debt ceiling hike without huge spending cuts. By tacking the debt limit increase to the massive domestic package, GOP leaders have hoped to sweeten the deal for those deficit hawks — a plan that would fall apart if the Treasury Department hits its borrowing limit before the GOP legislation is drafted and ready to go.
Democrats, meanwhile, are united behind the concept of raising the debt limit, but many are sure to reject a partisan proposal that advances parts of Trump’s government-gutting agenda — the same dynamics that drove House Democrats to vote almost unanimously against a partisan GOP spending bill earlier this month.
Not only that, but a number of Democrats are already warning that they’ll demand concessions from GOP leaders if Democratic votes are needed to get a debt limit hike through the lower chamber. In the earliest stages of the debate, those concessions are focused on efforts to stop Trump and Elon Musk from slashing federal programs, like those under the Department of Education and U.S. Agency for International Development.
“We're going to have to analyze it closely and see what we can horse-trade and improve,” Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) said. “We'd definitely need to ensure that we have the resources that we need for our districts that we've been advocating for for the last year, and try to renegotiate some of the cuts that they've made, or they're proposing to make.”
To be sure, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) — with backup from Trump — has surprised many in Washington multiple times by muscling partisan bills through his razor-thin majority without Democratic help, including the latest spending bill and a budget resolution that would serve as a blueprint for passing Trump’s agenda.
But if he’s unable to do that in this case, he and other Republican leaders would be confronted with a big question: Do they work across the aisle on a bipartisan debt ceiling increase — one that has the best chance of passing through Congress — even if it risks alienating a far-right faction already distrustful of Johnson’s leadership style?
Democrats may also face a thorny decision: Do they join forces with Republicans to help shepherd the bill to Trump’s desk, even if it includes provisions they loathe, or oppose it at risk of being blamed for an unprecedented federal default?
The contours of the debate are similar to those surrounding the recent fight over government spending. In that battle, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) hopped the aisle to help Republicans pass a partisan GOP package. The bill was bad, Schumer said, but a government shutdown would have been worse.
For both parties, the decision may be coming soon. The Congressional Budget Office is expected on Wednesday to release its D-Day report revealing more insight about the drop-dead deadline for Congress to raise the Treasury Department’s borrowing limit or suffer a default on the nation’s debt obligations for the first time in history.
The Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) already released its forecast on Monday, in which it estimated the government could breach its debt ceiling sometime between July and October. Projections will become more precise the closer the government is to running out of cash.
The BPC also warned of the possibility of “heightened X Date risk in early June,” citing the impact tax revenue could have on the timeline. Other factors it said could also play a role in projections include disaster relief efforts, the economy and tariff revenue.
“The House put the debt ceiling increase in reconciliation, as long as it stays in there, and we get it done by July, we should be just fine,” Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), head of the House Freedom Caucus, said on Tuesday.
Republicans in both chambers have expressed optimism of adopting a budget resolution to kick off the reconciliation process next month, with some hoping to pass an eventual package during the summer. But Republican leaders in the Senate had indicated some skepticism about that timeline. And there’s still uncertainty as to whether a debt ceiling increase makes the final cut.
“It’s being dealt with in reconciliation, but I don't know if it’s gonna stay there,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) told The Hill on Tuesday.
“There are really three doors,” Kennedy said. “Door number one is deal with it in reconciliation. Door number two is deal with it in a separate piece of legislation. Door number three is let America default on its debt, and door number three, as far as I'm concerned, is nailed shut.”
“So, we’re down to door one and door two,” he said. “I would prefer to do it in reconciliation, but if the votes aren’t there in the form that the reconciliation bill takes, we’ll have to go to door number two.”
But a “clean” bill raising or suspending the debt ceiling could be a hard sell for some in the House GOP as many continue to sound alarm over the nation’s $36 trillion-plus debt.
“The bottom line is, debt ceilings have done us no good, and what you got to do is you're going to have to reduce your spending,” Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) told The Hill.
Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) also told The Hill on Tuesday that he is “not overly inclined to be supporting a clean debt ceiling increase.”
