Deaths in US expected to exceed births in 2033: CBO

The number of deaths in the U.S. is expected to exceed the number of births by 2033, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) annual 30-year projection of the U.S. population released on Monday.

That estimation comes seven years earlier than what the CBO estimated in its 30-year population outlook released last year. At that time, in January 2024, the CBO projected deaths to outpace births by 2040.

The CBO’s 2025 report projected lower population growth over the next three decades than it did in its 2024 demographic outlook.

The CBO’s population estimate for 2025 is 350 million, a slight increase from the 346 million it predicted for 2025 last year. But its projection for 2054 – 372 million people – has decreased since last year, when the CBO projected the population would be 383 million in 2054.

The rate of growth projected over the next three decades – 0.2 percent– is significantly slower than the rate seen in the prior five decades, from 1975 to 2024, when the population grew at 0.9 percent.

The growth rate over the next three decades is also expected to slow. From 2025 to 2035, the population is expected to grow an average of 0.4 percent a year. From 2036 to 2055, however, the growth rate is projected to be 0.1 percent.

The CBO attributes this projected slow rate of growth to a variety of factors, including lower fertility, an aging population and lower immigration.

The 2025 report reduced its immigration projection for the next few years as a result of President Biden’s June 2024 executive orders, which lowered its projected net-immigration levels.

“Net immigration becomes an increasingly important source of population growth. Without immigration, the population would shrink beginning in 2033, in part because fertility rates are projected to remain too low for a generation to replace itself,” the CBO report read.

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