Could a powerful solar flare wipe out life on Earth?
(NEXSTAR) – Coronal mass ejections — or explosive accelerations of plasma and magnetic material from the Sun — can be strong enough to disturb the Earth’s magnetosphere, producing geomagnetic storms powerful enough to cause both the northern lights and widespread telecommunications disruptions.
Could a CME actually wipe out life on Earth, though?
No, it can't, according to experts. But a strong storm could still have devastating consequences.
Coronal mass ejections, or CMEs for short, are observed around once per week during a solar minimum (the sun’s less-active phase) and up to several times per day during a solar maximum. But rarely does a CME event affect the day-to-day operations of Earth’s inhabitants. It’s also “not considered possible” that a CME would destroy life on our planet, a space weather forecaster told Nexstar.
“Earth is very well protected by our atmosphere and our protective magnetic barrier,” Shawn Dahl, a forecaster with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), said.
That doesn’t mean CMEs can’t be disruptive or extremely detrimental to our infrastructure, though.
A solar flare observed in 1859 is thought to have fueled a CME that produced the Carrington Event, a geomagnetic storm regarded as the most intense in recorded history. Impacts included outages to telegraph services worldwide, with telegraph lines sparking and, in some cases, causing shocks to the telegraph operators and fires at their stations.
There were also dazzling auroras observed in both the northern and southern hemispheres, illuminating the sky enough to allow viewers to read newspapers, according to recounts compiled by NASA. But they also caused awe and distress.
“Many took it to be a sign of some great disaster or important event, citing numerous instances when such warnings have been given,” the New Orleans Daily Picayune wrote at the time, NASA noted.
Electrical and telecommunications companies today are working to install systems to mitigate the effects of a similar geomagnetic storm. But still, such an event could have serious consequences, especially since there are more technological systems at risk than in 1859.
“If the Carrington Event happened today, it would have even more severe impacts, such as widespread electrical disruptions, persistent blackouts, and interruptions to global communications,” Vanessa Thomas, a science writer for NASA, wrote in 2023. “Such technological chaos could cripple economies and endanger the safety and livelihoods of people worldwide.”
Only a few storms even approaching the level of the Carrington Event have been observed in the years since, including one that knocked out power to the entire Canadian province of Quebec in 1989, and another series of storms in 2003 that knocked out some satellites, GPS and airline radio communications systems.
But the Earth also dodged a celestial bullet in July 2012, when a CME at least as powerful as the one that caused the Carrington Event accelerated into our planet’s orbit, but narrowly missing the Earth.
"If it had hit, we would still be picking up the pieces," said Daniel Baker, a space researcher and distinguished professor at the University of Colorado, in a 2014 article. Baker, together with NASA scientists, theorized that the event would have caused widespread blackouts, damage to major transformer systems, and trillions in damage. NASA even wrote that it could have “knock[ed] modern civilization back to the 18th century.”
Thankfully, the odds of a CME causing a storm of that magnitude are relatively low. Data on previous CME events (using evidence found in arctic ice) indicates that such a storm occurs once every 500 years or so. And in a 2021 study by UC Irvine researcher Sangeetha Abdu Jyoth, the author cited astrophysicists who estimated the likelihood of even an internet-disrupting event at between 1.6% and 12% per decade.
Even still, human life is in no direct danger from an especially powerful CME striking Earth.
“The most intense storms can disrupt technology (like satellites in space, or power grids on Earth), threaten the health of astronauts in space, or even increase radiation exposure for high-altitude aircraft near the poles,” a NASA scientist told Nexstar in an emailed statement. “However, people on the surface of the Earth are not in danger from the effects of solar storms.”
Date: |
Topics
-
BBC News - Top stories
People expect Man City to be wiped 'from face of Earth'
Pep Guardiola says people expect to see Manchester City wiped "off the face of the Earth" over the club's alleged financial rule breaches.21 hours ago -
ABC News - Tech
The AI boom may give Three Mile Island a new life supplying power to Microsoft's data centers
The owner of the shuttered Three Mile Island nuclear power plant says it plans to restart the reactor under a 20-year agreement that calls for tech giant Microsoft to buy the power to supply its ...Yesterday -
ABC News - Sports
Diana Taurasi closes out what could be final home game of her 20-year career
Diana Taurasi tired to address the Phoenix Mercury crowd, but was interrupted2 days ago -
ABC News - Top stories
The Midwest could offer fall’s most electric foliage but leaf peepers elsewhere won’t miss out
Fall is back, and bringing with it jack-o’-lanterns, football, pumpkin spice everything and, in some parts of the country, especially vibrant foliageYesterday -
Yahoo News - World
These big shipyards are China's shipbuilding power players and are cranking out new warships at a breakneck pace
Yesterday -
CBS News - Top stories
"Mini-moon" to temporarily orbit Earth for 2 months
For the next two months, Earth will have a "mini-moon" when a small asteroid temporarily orbits the planet. Scientists say the asteroid, which is only 33 feet long, will enter Earth's gravity in a ...2 days ago -
CBS News - Top stories
The Life and Death of Blaze Bernstein
A brilliant college student is killed by a former classmate. Inside the trial of the secret neo-Nazi prosecutors say murdered Blaze because he was gay and Jewish. "48 Hours" correspondent Tracy ...13 hours ago
More from The Hill
-
The Hill - Politics
Dan Evans, former Washington governor and senator, dies at 98
Dan Evans, the former governor of Washington who also served in the Senate, died on Friday night at his home in Seattle at the age of 98. Evans was a popular three-term Republican governor. He ...31 minutes ago -
The Hill - Politics
Democrats go on offense against false claims about Haitians: ‘Racist fearmongers’
House Democrats have launched an aggressive campaign to push back against the false claims from some top Republicans that Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, are eating their neighbors’ pets. ...32 minutes ago -
The Hill - Politics
Take back the public square: Why silence won’t slow polarization
The silent majority is contributing to polarization by avoiding expressing views due to fear of public response, allowing the loud minority to dominate public discourse and create a perception gap ...32 minutes ago -
The Hill - Politics
Pennsylvania Democrat stresses need for bipartisanship in probe of Trump assassination attempts
Rep. Chrissy Houlahan (D-Pa.) said Sunday that it is critical for the bipartisan task force investigating the assassination attempts against former President Trump to work swiftly and in a ...56 minutes ago - Donald Trump -
The Hill - Politics
Rubio says he trusts field FBI agents to probe Trump shooting attempts, but notes ‘history’ of bias from leadership
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), vice chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said he trusts rank-and-file FBI agents to do their jobs as they probe the apparent shooting attempts on former President ...1 hour ago - Donald Trump