Cook Political Report shifts six House races to Dems, two to GOP

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report on Friday shifted six House races toward Democrats and two contests toward the GOP in their final update before Election Day.

The election handicapper moved Rep. Anthony D’Esposito’s (R-N.Y.) race in New York's 4th Congressional district from a “toss-up” to “lean Democrat,” giving an advantage to his Democratic challenger Laura Gillen.

The group cited D’Esposito being outspent on the airwaves, predicted a higher turnout in the district President Biden won in 2020 and new allegations of corruption against the Republican lawmaker who “can’t afford to make many mistakes in a seat this tough to hold," according to an analysis from Cook.

Rep. Don Bacon’s (R-Neb.) reelection bid in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District was also moved from “toss-up” to “lean Democrat,” with recent polling in the district showing Vice President Harris running ahead of Biden’s 2020 margin. The analysis noted that Bacon would need backing from Harris’s split-ticket voters, but with the vice president's polling advantage in the district, “he probably can’t survive.”

Cook moved four other House races in Democrats’ favor.

Rep. Andrea Salinas’s (D-Ore.) reelection bid in Oregon's 6th Congressional district was shifted from “lean Democrat” to “likely Democrat” due to, in part, the incumbent’s ad-spending advantage, Harris’s double-digit lead in the district and the challenger, Republican Mike Erickson, not getting much assistance from national GOP groups.

Rep. Angie Craig’s (D-Minn.) race in the North Star State was also updated from “lean Democrat” to “likely Democrat” after posting strong fundraising hauls and being projected to perform better in the polls than Harris in Minnesota's 2nd Congressional district.

In Colorado, the race for Rep. Lauren Boebert’s (R-Colo.) former district was shifted from “likely Republican" to "lean Republican” as Democrat Adam Frisch has continued to post strong fundraising hauls against attorney Jeff Hurd. Despite Harris’s dismal support in the state's 3rd Congressional district, Cook noted that she "still has a real shot at pulling off an upset,” where Democratic Gov. Jared Polis won by 2 points in 2022.

In New Hampshire’s 2nd Congressional district, Democrat Maggie Goodlander is projected to win her race after a competitive primary. She has outraised her GOP opponent and garnered a lead in the polls, prompting Cook to shift it from “likely Democrat" to “solid Democrat.”

Despite six races being moved in favor of Democrats, two seats are favored by Republicans.

In Michigan’s open 7th District race, Republican former state Sen. Tom Barrett is ahead in the polls despite Democrats spending more than the GOP. Cook noted that former state Sen. Curtis Hertel Jr. (D) has “struggled to replicate" Rep. Elissa Slotkin’s (D-Mich.) "appeal," and has moved the race from “toss up" to "lean Republican.”

In Maryland, Democratic nominee April McClain Delaney's race against former state Del. Neil Parrott (R) in the 6th Congressional district was shifted from “likely Democrat" to "lean Democrat."

Cook noted that McClain Delaney's late spending in the race had undercut her chance to reach more working-class voters. Despite polls showing a tighter race, the handicapper noted that the Democrats' recent ads attacking Parrott’s past controversial statements and fundraising advantage should still likely win her the contest.