Conservatives weigh potential show of opposition against Johnson

Even as Republicans are increasingly optimistic that they’ll keep control of the House, some conservatives remain wary of Mike Johnson — and they’re discussing how to telegraph their concerns in next week’s secret leadership ballot.

With nearly two dozen races still outstanding, Johnson seems close to a major victory: Holding the tiny GOP majority, after a campaign season where he tied himself closely to Donald Trump and campaigned heavily for his at-risk members. Still, some House Republicans are mulling ways to signal their potential opposition to Johnson’s bid on the secret ballot, according to two Republicans familiar with the discussions, who were granted anonymity to talk about private plans.

Johnson is expected to easily clear the majority hurdle needed to become the speaker nominee in that meeting on Wednesday. But conservatives could field a candidate to run against him for the speaker nod, or may try to oppose him or vote present in the secret ballot.

That won’t be enough to derail his nomination, but it’s a warning for Johnson ahead of the real test in January, when he’ll need a majority vote on the House floor to take the gavel. If Republicans only take control of the House by a slim margin, as expected, that means Johnson will need near-unanimous support from his conference since he can’t count on any Democratic votes.

Enter skeptical conservatives, who want concessions from Johnson on the rules governing the chamber and a plan to secure conservative wins in exchange for their votes. Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy faced similar demands two years ago, when it took him 15 ballots to get elected speaker on the House floor — he ultimately had to make several changes to the rules that gave conservatives more power and severely weakened his hold on the conference.

“There are a number of members who are still very undecided and withholding judgment,” said one GOP member, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. Their hesitations are tied to “past performance,” like how Johnson handled spending fights and Ukraine aid, but also questions about “whether or not we’re going to be able to deliver.”

If another candidate doesn’t challenge Johnson next week, that could allow leadership to call for a voice vote rather than a ballot — that’s how Paul Ryan earned the speaker nod in 2016 — handicapping any conservative attempt to formally vote against Johnson, at least until January. Hardliners largely in the ultra-conservative House Freedom Caucus backed a symbolic candidate, Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), against McCarthy in 2022. But Biggs failed to get a majority in the conference vote.

The Arizona Republican declined to say if he would vote for Johnson next week or if he would mount another symbolic challenge. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), another Freedom Caucus member, said he wasn’t sure yet if he would support Johnson, adding that his focus is on the rules for the next Congress.

“[The] devil is in the details,” Norman said, while joking that the group was not privately “scheming” but instead “we’re discussing, we’re planning.”

Johnson has a few advantages over McCarthy that could help him avoid a drawn-out leadership fight. McCarthy was looking to lead Republicans when Democrats were going to control both the Senate and the White House. Johnson, however, is looking at a Donald Trump presidency and possible control of both chambers of Congress, and many GOP lawmakers are eager to dive into their agenda.

There is a fear that Trump could retaliate against those hamstringing the GOP agenda, and his influence in deep-red districts could be particularly costly if he goes nuclear in ways he previously has, including encouraging primary challengers.

Plus, if Trump bearhugs Johnson, as the GOP leader predicts he will, that would complicate any effort to derail his speakership bid. If Johnson refuses to play ball on conservative demands, they would have to choose between backing down with little to show for it or risking Trump’s wrath. And if the floor fight that begins on Jan. 3 lasts more than three days, it risks delaying the congressional certification of Trump’s election victory.

But Johnson still has stubborn pockets of opposition he’ll have to work on. Eleven Republicans helped advance an ouster effort against Johnson earlier this year, though several have since indicated they would not have actually voted to boot him from office. He has some detractors outside that group as well, who publicly grumbled that they didn’t have faith in Johnson’s leadership but believed a May ouster would have plunged the conference into ill-timed chaos.

Johnson’s most vocal detractors are Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Thomas Massie (R-Ky.). While neither have publicly indicated since the election how they will vote next week, Greene has said she wants to delay the secret-ballot leadership contest. Other Johnson critics reside within the Freedom Caucus, and members of the group convened behind closed doors this week with incoming lawmakers to strategize about leadership votes, concessions they want on the rules and the start of the Trump administration.

Multiple conservatives say they are eager to protect the changes they extracted under McCarthy, including the internal rule that allows only one member to trigger a vote to oust a speaker, known as the motion to vacate. But they also have various demands about government spending — and the Dec. 20 government shutdown deadline could be a major test for Johnson ahead of the January floor vote.

But it is not just the conference’s conservatives who are trying to shape the next Congress.

A group of centrists have been crafting their own rule proposals for months. They filed potential amendments to the rules earlier this week, including one that would require a majority of House Republicans to support a motion to vacate in order to trigger a vote to oust a speaker, one member familiar with the effort told POLITICO. Another allows members to be removed from committees if they block the party’s legislative priorities by opposing so-called rule votes on the House floor.

Some Republicans have also called for Johnson to overhaul the House Rules Committee by removing conservative Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas), Massie and Norman. The three were added to the typically leadership-aligned panel by McCarthy — part of his deal with hardliners two years ago. They’ve used their posts to cause occasional headaches for leadership, preventing bills from getting out of the committee until their demands are met.

Illustrating the tough spot Johnson is in, conservatives are ready to demand that the three members keep those spots.

“I’d like to stay on Rules,” Norman said. “I’m doing a good job.”