China is poised to dominate biotechnology in the 21st century
When you or your child next take a dose of antibiotics, consider that 90 percent of its raw ingredients were likely manufactured in China using biotechnologies. China has captured production of portions of the global biotechnology supply chain to accomplish President Xi Jinping’s goal to “develop effective deterrent against attempts by other countries to sever our supply chains.”
What if China decided to sever American access to the drug ingredients your sick kid depends on? But America’s losing position in the biotechnology race with China has broader implications than just pharmaceutical choke points.
Signs of China’s ascendance in biotechnology are everywhere. Chinese researchers publish over 60 percent of high-impact research papers in synthetic biology. The New York Times cited an estimate that the Chinese firm WuXi is involved in a quarter of all drugs used in the U.S. WuXi, like other contract research organizations, conducts all stages of clinical trials and makes key ingredients in critical drugs, such as those used to treat cancers. This not only gives a Chinese company direct knowledge into how drugs work on our bodies and why they fail, but it means that our supply chain of drugs for obesity and leukemia have come to depend on WuXi.
Likely not by coincidence, the Chinese government has more than doubled its publicly declared subsidies to WuXi to $48 million in 2023, up from $21 million in 2019. The Chinese have also successfully captured part of the therapeutic supply chain in only four years — global pharmaceutical companies now purchase over one-third of new therapeutic molecules from China, up from zero just four years ago.
Beyond investments in research, private companies and manufacturing, China is strategically investing in the final pillar of its biotech dominance: education. In 2003, my colleague Drew Endy helped launch a competition for undergraduates at MIT — a sort of Olympiad for engineering biology — that has grown into a worldwide competition called iGEM. It is now held annually in Paris with around 400 teams. While U.S. participation has stayed steady at about 50 teams since 2012, half of the teams now come from China. This surge speaks to a cultural level of enthusiasm — this is what an all-of-nation approach starts to look like.
Why does this all matter? For starters, there’s an economic argument of opportunity. While biotech currently comprises just 5 percent of the goods and services in the U.S. economy, McKinsey estimates as much as 60 percent of the physical inputs to the global economy — things like wood, plastics and fuels — could in principle be produced by biotech. China possessing a majority of biotech manufacturing capabilities would not only transfer economic opportunity away from the U.S., it would increase American dependency on China.
There is also an existential argument. It is reasonable to assume that the country that now dominates the drug development life cycle, from research and development to production, will be more equipped to protect its population from harmful biology, either natural or manmade.
How did we get here? China executed a comprehensive all-of-nation strategy that began in 2012 with a 20-year road map for synthetic biology, ironically developed in partnership with the U.K. and America. China replicated how those countries performed tech investment and advancement, building state-of-the-art facilities. The Chinese biotech firm BGI alone can sequence, or read, the DNA code of 10,000 humans per year, outpacing the full combined capacity of American firms.
China poured resources into education, as evidenced by iGEM. China aligned the entire nation — from government to industry to academia — behind biotechnology development. A Chinese Academy of Science official explained, “As Europe won in the 19th century using industry, and the United States won in the 20th century using information technology, so China will win in the 21st using biology.” China designed this outcome: The U.S. is already reliant on China, and China wants to increase that reliance.
The good news is that the American government does not need to outspend the Chinese Communist Party. Public capital, however, must be bold, as sundry, small-scale biomanufacturing grants won’t be enough.
For example, we could repurpose funding at the Department of Energy to create a large-language laboratory whose mission is to ensure the foundational models in biology are developed here and not in China. Also, we could task the intelligence community with collecting and analyzing environmental DNA rich in information so America gains a baseline and early warning of biological threats. Xi is doing it — he already told his government in April 2020 to make “early warning capabilities the most urgent priority.”
The choice before us is stark and obvious. China is implementing a 20-year road map with central coordination from Xi down, with investment and energy flowing to education, research, manufacturing and ostensibly private companies. We can invest in bolder actions now and harness that special American ingenuity or face a future where our prosperity and security will depend on a technology likely controlled by others.
Biology is as programmable as computers. The nations that master this technology will reap benefits as large as the computer-based information revolution of the last 50 years. Xi clearly anticipates the biological century. The question is whether America will lead it — or follow China.
Emily Clise Tully is a visiting fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution and part of its Bio-Strategies and Leadership Program. She works at Ginkgo Bioworks and formerly served on the Senate Intelligence Committee and at the CIA.
-
Hugging Face co-founder Thomas Wolf just challenged Anthropic CEO’s vision for AI’s future — and the $130 billion industry is taking notice
Hugging Face co-founder Thomas Wolf challenges Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's "compressed 21st century" vision, arguing AI systems are building "yes-men on servers" rather than the revolutionary ...VentureBeat - 3d -
Texas army base poised to become mass deportation hub under Trump plan
Reports of Fort Bliss being used for detention as well as expulsion purposes spark outrage from critics. The huge US army base of Fort Bliss at the Texas-Mexico border is poised to become a ...The Guardian - 1d -
China preparing for a protracted trade war with U.S.
China announced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products and targeted 25 American companies in response to the now 20% blanket tariffs President Trump placed on all Chinese goods. Anna ...CBS News - 6h -
UCLA dominates rival USC to lock up double bye in Big Ten tournament
Eric Dailey Jr. finishes with 25 points and Skyy Clark scores 17 as UCLA blows out rival USC 90-63 to head into the Big Ten tournament on a dominant note.Yahoo Sports - 20h -
In Latin America, China is finally losing ground
Mexico is reviewing its tariff policy over China, and an American investor group has signed a huge deal taking control over key ports near the Panama Canal, indicating that Trump's America First ...The Hill - 10h -
Consumer prices fell in China in February and remain flat in a sluggish economy
Consumer prices fell in China in February for the first time in 13 months, as persistent weak demand was compounded by the early timing of the Lunar New Year holidayABC News - 15h -
As Trump shakes the international order, China casts itself as a model of stability
Even as its economy slows, China is using its annual National People's Congress to present itself as a global stalwart as Trump upends America's alliances.NBC News - 12h -
Duke, back to 'hunters', rallies to dominate UNC
Freshman Kon Knueppel scored 17 points to help No. 2 Duke beat rival North Carolina 82-69 on Saturday night and clinch the outright Atlantic Coast Conference regular-season title.ESPN - 8h -
U.S. Army soldiers accused of selling classified materials to China
Two U.S. Army soldiers were arrested in Washington state for allegedly trying to sell sensitive government information to buyers in China. Charlie D'Agata has more.CBS News - 1d
More from The Hill
-
HHS sends employees a $25K voluntary buyout offer
The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) offered its 80,000 employees a $25,000 buyout offer as part of President Trump’s plan to scale back government spending. Workers can opt into the ...The Hill - 1h -
Small plane crashes in Pennsylvania
A small plane crashed in Manheim Township, Pa., on Sunday. The incident occurred just after 3:15 p.m., and crews were on the scene, ABC6 reported. The Aircraft N347M took off from the Lancaster ...The Hill - 1h -
Jury is out on Rubio in Senate, as some lose faith
Some of Secretary of State Marco Rubio's former Democratic colleagues are already expressing regret over their votes in support of the former senator. But his boosters on both sides of the aisle ...The Hill - 1h -
Graham on Ukraine aid pause: 'If we pull the plug on Ukraine, it'd be worse than Afghanistan'
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said on Sunday he is worried about the consequences of suspending aid and intelligence sharing to Ukraine as the fighting continues against Russia. “Yeah, I am worried ...The Hill - 1h -
Canada braces for new leader: Here are Trudeau’s potential successors
Canada is bracing for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s successor, who will follow the Liberal Party leader who has led U.S.’s neighbor to the north since the Obama administration, The Associated ...The Hill - 2h
More in Politics
-
HHS sends employees a $25K voluntary buyout offer
The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) offered its 80,000 employees a $25,000 buyout offer as part of President Trump’s plan to scale back government spending. Workers can opt into the ...The Hill - 1h -
Small plane crashes in Pennsylvania
A small plane crashed in Manheim Township, Pa., on Sunday. The incident occurred just after 3:15 p.m., and crews were on the scene, ABC6 reported. The Aircraft N347M took off from the Lancaster ...The Hill - 1h -
Jury is out on Rubio in Senate, as some lose faith
Some of Secretary of State Marco Rubio's former Democratic colleagues are already expressing regret over their votes in support of the former senator. But his boosters on both sides of the aisle ...The Hill - 1h -
Graham on Ukraine aid pause: 'If we pull the plug on Ukraine, it'd be worse than Afghanistan'
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said on Sunday he is worried about the consequences of suspending aid and intelligence sharing to Ukraine as the fighting continues against Russia. “Yeah, I am worried ...The Hill - 1h -
Canada braces for new leader: Here are Trudeau’s potential successors
Canada is bracing for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s successor, who will follow the Liberal Party leader who has led U.S.’s neighbor to the north since the Obama administration, The Associated ...The Hill - 2h