Trade and manufacturing experts say Trump’s tariff threats are already having an effect on global supply chains, with businesses making advanced purchases of imported goods and buying up extra warehouse space ahead of the election.
Sébastien Breteau, CEO of supply chain compliance firm QIMA, said Chinese exports to North America are up 13 percent since the start of 2024 and were up 18 percent between July and September.
“We are seeing a bump, a surge on orders pre-election,” Breteau told The Hill.
He said the increase was a result of anticipated tariffs during a second Trump administration, though he noted it’s relatively small compared with the ordering surges that occurred during the pandemic.
However disruptive Trump’s China tariffs could prove to be, Chinese retaliation could further amplify their economic effects.
That retaliation could also have targeted political consequences, as Chinese agricultural tariffs aimed at particular subsectors during Trump’s trade war with China during his first term sought to undermine support from the Republican base.
“That was the thinking during the Trump administration, and I think that continues to be the thinking of the Communist Party. They view [tariffs] as a political maneuver,” Diane Rulke, a professor at Carnegie Mellon’s Tepper School of Business, told The Hill.
“They do study the American political system, and I believe last time it was quite effective when they targeted the farm products.”
The Hill Tobias Burns has more here.
