Be very careful when making stolen election claims

On the second day of in-person early voting in Texas, a Tarrant County man posted a video on social media claiming his voting machine switched his presidential vote to the other candidate. Election officials let him vote again and the system worked. The man almost certainly erred the first time he voted, according to state officials. And yet his public claim of vote switching could have encouraged people to go to that polling station to protest.

It’s a scenario we may see several times before this election is behind us. In the heightened political tensions, such claims could result in denunciations, protests and violence.

Humans run polling stations and election offices, and they can make mistakes. Voters can also make mistakes. In addition, voting machines sometimes break down and software can act glitchy. Not every mistake and not every human error is a conspiracy to steal the election.

So, before anyone goes public with stolen election claims, they need to reach out to election officials. If something did go wrong, there may be a perfectly good explanation, including human error or a misunderstanding.

Yes, election fraud does happen, but so do false and erroneous claims of election fraud. There’s an old joke that goes something like, “Economists have predicted nine of the past five economic recessions.” Similarly, there are a lot more claims of election fraud and stolen elections than have actually occurred.

Consider Donald Trump’s assertions that the 2020 presidential election was stolen. That has led to his supporters threatening and even assaulting poll workers and election officials, including Republicans who supported and voted for Trump.

The Wall Street Journal has reported on precautions being taken in Arizona, one of the swing states that could decide the election. Steven Richer, a Republican and the outgoing election recorder for Arizona’s Maricopa County, says that 10 long-time employees on his 140-person staff have resigned for safety reasons. And many of his 3,000 volunteer workers were scared off after their cars were surrounded by angry Trump supporters.

The Journal adds, “Across the state, election workers have gone through active-shooter drills and learned to barricade themselves or wield fire hoses to repel armed mobs. At the ready are trauma kits containing tourniquets and bandages designed to pack chest wounds and stanch serious bleeding.”

Those claiming the election was stolen say there was no way Arizona would vote for a Democrat for president, even though it had two Democratic senators and currently has a Democratic governor and had a Democratic governor from 2003 to 2009.

And Arizona is not alone. For example, the Journal writes, “In Colorado, death threats from election deniers have led some county clerks and election officials to have bulletproof vests on hand.”

Had proof of widespread 2020 election fraud emerged one might understand the anger. But no one has proven that the election was stolen, even after some 60 lawsuits and numerous state recounts.

And yet everyone is on edge, fearing this year’s losers will react violently, whether Republicans or Democrats — recall that Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election and Stacey Abrams in Georgia’s 2018 governor’s race have continued to claim their elections were stolen.

Democrats have poured fuel on the election-denying fire by opposing nearly all recent state election integrity laws and by denouncing reasonable practices like requiring voter IDs, which can make it harder to cheat.

Some state practices add to the skepticism. Swing states Wisconsin and Pennsylvania don’t allow mail-in ballots to be opened and counted until Election Day, which could delay their results for days, raising suspicions of cheating.

But it’s also true that some people will likely try to commit fraud. Pennsylvania election officials are investigating “potential fraud in voter registration applications in three” counties. To be clear, these are not votes cast, as Trump has been saying. They’re applications to register to vote. Even so, everyone would feel better if the Keystone State would adopt some election best practices, as Florida has done.

What’s a concerned voter to do? First, be a responsible observer to ensure the voting process in your area is working correctly. Second, if you see something concerning, talk to an election official. There may be a good explanation.

Third, if that doesn’t work, reach out to the investigative reporters at local TV or radio stations. They have the expertise and resources to get answers.

Election fraud does occur, but be careful about attributing to conspiracy what can just as easily be attributed to incompetence or stupidity.

Merrill Matthews is a public policy and political analyst and the co-author of “On the Edge: America Faces the Entitlements Cliff.” Follow him on X@MerrillMatthews