Appeasement or punishment: What will the US show tyrants?

Someday, historians will study us and our actions: Could we have prevented certain events, which decisions were fatal, and which turned the tide of the war and brought a just peace closer?

We still don't know what this era will be called in books, but we know that the eyes of the whole world are focused on Ukraine, mostly the eyes of the leaders of non-democratic countries. This is because they read signals and plan their potential actions based on the West’s response to Russian attacks.

The U.S. is a key partner in the issue of armed assistance to Ukraine in this war, and when Donald Trump won the presidential election, it was natural that Ukrainians asked: What’s next?

On one hand, we know Donald Trump as the president who first provided Kyiv with lethal weapons (Javelin anti-tank systems) to repel Russian aggression even before the start of the full-scale invasion. On the other hand, we heard statements during the election campaign about the end of the war within 24 hours.

No one knows for sure what strategy the new administration will choose regarding the war. But there are things that we have learned.

First, responsibility for this war lies only with the Russian Federation. It began in 2014 with the unprovoked Russian annexation of Crimea and the occupation of the part of the Ukrainian East, and it continued with the full-scale Feb. 24, 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Second, it is impossible to negotiate with Russia, to seek compromises with Putin or to hope for agreements with him, because he will not honor them. Back in 2014, Ukraine and Russia concluded the Minsk agreements, a peaceful settlement to Russia's initial incursion. Since then, according to the former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba, there have been almost 200 rounds of negotiations and 20 full-fledged cease-fire agreements. Russia did not comply with any of them. As a result, on Feb. 24, 2022, we had a full-scale war in the heart of the European continent. Because the Kremlin has accumulated forces and weapons, and there were simply no effective sanctions that could have prevented this.

Third, we have learned that international agreements and arrangements work only when they are enforced. In December 1994, Ukraine signed the Budapest Memorandum and voluntarily gave up its arsenal of nuclear weapons. Twenty years later, one of the guarantors of Ukrainian sovereignty — the Russian Federation — began its aggression, and moving to a full-scale war 28 years later. Nowadays, when Ukrainians hear about security guarantees, they ask themselves and the world: Who will enforce them?

President-elect Trump came to power with a promise to "make America great again." And it’s clear that this is entails the U.S. returning to its global leadership role. This role involves keeping promises and supporting those who fight for democratic values.

When the new U.S. president looks at the world map, he should see that what is happening in Ukraine is a precedent that one country in the 21st century can simply annex the territory of another, commit all manner of war crimes and atrocities against civilians, receive no punishment, and in fact be rewarded for those atrocities with favorable deals with the world's police.

That is not the signal America wants to send to the world. Iran, North Korea, China and other tyrants cannot take from this conflict the lesson that they can destroy, kill, torture, ruin and then make a deal with the U.S.

The signal that the civilized world expects to see from the U.S. is peace through strength. This power is what Ukrainians are asking from America, who have already proven by their actions that they are ready to fight for freedom.

Right now, we are cautiously optimistic about the appointment of Gen. Keith Kellogg to the position of the U.S. special representative for Ukraine and Russia, who emphasized the implementation of the concept of peace through strength.

The important question that Trump and his team are asking is, who will pay for all this? Of course, it doesn't have to be an American or European taxpayer. Putin has to pay — both for Ukraine's victory and for post-war reconstruction.

For its part, the U.S. has already adopted the REPO Act, which refers to Russia's frozen sovereign assets. However, most of this money of the Russian Federation is not in the U.S., but in Europe — in particular, in Belgium in the Euroclear holding. There are already decisions by countries of the Big Seven about the use of profits from frozen Russian assets, but their body (which is up to $500 billion worldwide) remains intact.

Confiscating this money and then transferring it to Ukraine means not only saving the money of European and American citizens but also showing Putin strength. Because it is money, and not the lives of Russian citizens, that worries the Kremlin the most and is the most painful point for the regime.

Therefore, we optimistically hope that the new White House team will not only make all the necessary decisions but also continue to put pressure on European partners to follow suit with the confiscation of Russian assets.

It is possible to force Russia and Ukraine into a certain compromise truce, but it is naive to hope that it will be a just and lasting peace. Currently, the Russian economy is struggling due to sanctions and closed markets. The Kremlin needs a pause in order to rearm, draw conclusions from previous mistakes and go on the offensive with new strength. They will do it and have proven it more than once in previous wars, such as in Chechnya or Georgia.

At the same time, other authoritarian regimes will see that invaders of smaller countries and wars get away with it. You just need to renegotiate later and pretend that you are going to keep your promises. Is such a world safe? Certainly not.

The world needs to see that America is back in the game, the policeman who will not allow democracy and freedom to be mocked is back. Violations of the rules of the world order are severely punished, and it will not be possible to negotiate.

Kira Rudik is a member of Parliament in Ukraine and the leader of Golos party.

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