Allure of higher office could hinder House Democrats' midterm hopes
House Democrats vying to flip control of the lower chamber in next year’s midterm elections may face a new challenge: the exodus of battleground incumbents seeking higher office.
A number of vulnerable House Democrats are eyeing runs for the Senate or other offices in a handful of states around the country, including Michigan and Maine. If they do make the leap, they would vacate tough House seats, eliminate the Democrats’ advantage of incumbency, and force party campaign operatives to recruit new candidates — and spend more money — to keep those districts in the next Congress.
The trend could complicate the Democrats’ path to winning back control of the House in the 2026 midterms, when party leaders are optimistic about their chances of seizing the Speaker’s gavel after four years in the minority wilderness.
The midterm cycle has been historically brutal for the party that controls the White House, and House Republicans are already clinging to just a tiny majority in the current Congress. If Democrats net three House seats in November of 2026, they’ll control the chamber — an outcome Democrats are confident they’ll achieve.
For the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), seeing talented politicians who can win in swing districts reach for higher office is just a reality of the job.
“House Democrats’ overperformance last cycle proves no one is better at recruiting and working to elect genuine and authentic candidates than the DCCC — and we’ll do it again this cycle," DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton said in a statement.
Still, the razor-thin margins in the House have left leaders in both parties scrambling to maximize every small advantage that comes along. With that in mind, Republicans are practically drooling at the prospect that a few of their top Democratic targets might leave the lower chamber on their own accord before voters ever go to the polls.
“House Democrats aren’t just fighting amongst themselves, they’re fighting an uphill battle for the majority while watching their own ranks thin out as ambition takes priority over party survival,” one GOP campaign operative said.
The list of Democratic incumbents considering a run at another office is not a long one. But it’s grown in recent weeks with the announced retirements of several sitting senators, and it includes a handful of vulnerable front-liners whose experience and regional branding has given Democrats an edge even in some districts carried by President Trump.
In Maine, for instance, Rep. Jared Golden (D) is reportedly facing some pressure from allies to run for either the Senate, where GOP Sen. Susan Collins is vying for a sixth term in 2026, or the governor’s mansion, where the current resident, Democratic Gov. Janet Mills, will be term-limited out of office at the end of next year.
Golden squeaked to victory last November, winning a fourth term in a district that Trump carried, and Republicans have perennially made him a top target on their pickup list. Golden’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment about his future plans.
Another Democratic front-liner, Michigan Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet, is also considering a run for the Senate following the announced retirement of two-term Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), according to local reports.
Trump won the state in last year’s presidential contest. But Democratic Sen. Elissa Slotkin (Mich.) successfully jumped from the House to the Senate despite those national headwinds. And McDonald Rivet, who outperformed former Vice President Kamala Harris by a healthy margin last year to win her first term in the House, is weighing whether to follow in Slotkin’s footsteps. Her office did not respond to a request for comment last week.
In Minnesota, Democratic Rep. Angie Craig said last month that she is “giving serious consideration” to a run for the Senate after Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) announced she will bow out at the end of the term.
Craig easily carried her district last year, by almost 14 points, en route to a fourth term — a performance that far outpaced Harris, who won the region by 5 points. But Craig was a front-liner in her first three races for the lower chamber, and the seat could become more competitive without her on the House ballot.
A campaign spokesperson said Craig’s decision will likely arrive “in weeks, not months.”
New Hampshire is another battleground state that could see some shake-ups this cycle. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) is retiring at the end of 2026 after 18 years in the upper chamber, and two House Democrats are eyeing the opportunity to replace her.
Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.), who was just elected to a fourth term, is one, according to numerous reports. And first-term Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-N.H.) is also weighing a run, according to a person familiar with her thinking.
Pappas is not on the Democrats’ front-line list heading into next year’s midterms. But he was a part of that swing-district group in previous cycles, and the Republicans’ campaign arm has him listed among their top targets in 2026. His campaign did not respond to requests for comment about his plans.
House Democrats, to be sure, are not alone in having members eyeing higher office.
Most notably, Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), one of only three House Republicans to win a district that former Harris carried in 2024, is eyeing a run for governor.
And the open Michigan Senate seat or the state’s gubernatorial race could draw interest from Rep. John James (R), who represents a more competitive House district. James previously ran for Senate in 2020 and 2018.
Republicans’ success in any swing districts that are vacated by Democrats seeking higher office is not a guarantee, though, as key races in the 2024 cycle showed.
While Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Mich.) won the seat vacated by Slotkin, Democratic Reps. Dave Min (Calif.) and Eugene Vindman (Va.) won competitive races in the seats vacated by former Reps. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) and Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.).
Redistricting slated for this year in Ohio, where there is an open gubernatorial race and special Senate election, could add another wrinkle for Democrats. Redrawn districts could potentially encourage some Democrats like Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio) and Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Ohio), a front-liner this cycle, to abandon reelection bids and seek higher office, as Inside Elections analyst Nathan Gonzales wrote.
Despite the possible loss of swing-district incumbents, Democratic leaders are voicing confidence that they’ll prevail in the midterms and seize power in the House in 2027, when they’re vowing to provide a check on a president they deem to be out of control.
“Donald Trump and the Republicans are crashing the economy in real time and potentially driving us toward a recession,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), who’s in line to become Speaker if Democrats do take over, told reporters last week in Brooklyn.
“I'm very confident that next November we're taking back control of the United States House of Representatives."
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