A hinge point: How the Gaza cease-fire can lead to durable peace

The long-awaited cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas is now in effect, the first wave of hostages has been freed and needed humanitarian supplies should be moving into Gaza to relieve suffering and hunger. But a cease-fire is just a start on a pathway to a durable peace between Israel and its Palestinian neighbors.

Israel’s war aim is to eliminate Hamas as a terrorist force aimed at its destruction, and indeed a durable peace is not possible if forces dedicated to the eradication of the other side remain in power. Hamas, which started the Oct. 7 conflict with surprise attacks on Israeli civilians of great brutality, cannot be part of the postwar governance picture.

Extended Israeli occupation of Gaza would not lead to a durable peace either. It would only inspire a new generation of terrorists and militants among Gaza’s distressed population.

Israelis and Palestinians themselves, with the support of most of the international community (but not inveterate spoilers like Iran or Russia), can set out on a pathway to a durable peace. It will take leadership from Palestinians and Israelis: Palestinians to break with the past and commit unreservedly to living in peace and security with Israel, and the Israelis, to accept and support such a Palestinian commitment and join in supporting an eventual sovereign Palestinian state.

What are the steps on such a pathway? It begins with security, for Israelis living near Gaza and indeed throughout the country, and for Gazans subjected to bombardment and martial law.

A multinational coalition authority should assume responsibility for Gaza, as was done following Balkan wars, backed up by a multinational security force made up of strong military and police units from Europe, Arab states, and others, and buttressed by U.S. enablers. The multinational security force can root out remaining terrorist remnants, secure humanitarian aid flows, and begin deradicalization initiatives. Palestinian police and paramilitary units from the West Bank can work under its command.

But a security force alone would not lead to a durable peace. Palestinians making a commitment to peace must have the prospect of seeing the governance responsibility and prosperity that should come with it.

The coalition authority can support early local governance initiatives, and, in the medium term, a process to develop a constitution for a Palestinian state. Next would be elections among candidates committed to non-violence who would choose a governing body to negotiate details of final status with Israel (with international support).

Governance initiatives alone, however, would not guarantee a durable peace either. Palestine, comprising Gaza and the West Bank for economic and political viability, will need economic reform and international assistance at scale and speed to cope with the destruction and lay the groundwork for its people to compete in the international economy. This could give precious hope to Palestinians and Israelis alike that this time will be different.

Comparing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict of the last 75 years to historical precedents of other difficult conflicts that have been resolved peaceably — including Northern Ireland, Bosnia, and East Timor — offers lessons and a way forward. Our research found that there is a pathway to a durable peace for Israelis and Palestinians, but it will require leadership from within and support from without.

The cease-fire is a good start, but it's only a start.

Amb. (Ret.) Charles P. Ries is an adjunct senior fellow at RAND, a nonprofit, nonpartisan research institution. Daniel Egel is an economist at RAND, director of RAND's Initiative for Economics and Security, RAND's Department of State portfolio manager and a professor of policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School.

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