7 competitive primaries to watch in 2026
Primary battles are already underway in key Senate and gubernatorial races ahead of the 2026 midterms, an election that will determine not only control of Congress but also the governorships in several states.
Retirements and term limits have triggered wide-open contests that are poised to become packed with candidates, while a few potentially vulnerable incumbents seem like they could face a serious primary challenge for another term.
Here’s seven primaries to watch as the 2026 elections approach:
California gubernatorial primary
The race to replace term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has already been underway for more than a year and a half, and no candidate has emerged as a clear frontrunner.
The Democratic field is already loaded with several prominent current and former California politicians, including Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, former state Senate pro tempore Toni Atkins, state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.
But no candidate has pulled away, leaving the door open for others with a larger national profile.
The most prominent rumored candidate is former Vice President Harris, coming off a narrow loss to President Trump in November. Others have speculated she would instead plan another presidential run in 2028 instead.
Harris brushed aside questions about her future on Friday, saying she will be in touch with her community and leaders to “figure out what I can do to support them.”
If Harris doesn’t run, a favorite could be former Rep. Katie Porter (D), who has appeared to express interest in the role. Some hypothetical polling has found her as the leader if she enters the race.
California’s electoral system features a top-two primary in which all candidates appear on the same ballot and the two highest finishers advance to the general election. Republicans will also take part in the primary, but a Democrat will be the favorite to win the race in the blue stronghold.
Florida GOP gubernatorial primary
Along with Newsom, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is one of the most prominent governors in the country, and the race to succeed him will likely be fierce.
No one has officially announced their candidacy yet, but a few possible candidates have expressed interest.
Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) could be an early favorite as a close ally of Trump and someone who has increasingly taken on a national profile. Sources have said Donalds has approached Florida donors about running and brought on several staffers, including Trump 2016 and 2024 pollster Tony Fabrizio.
One poll from last month showed Donalds clearly ahead of other potential candidates, but most voters were undecided.
Former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) told The Tampa Bay Times last month that he was thinking about running, saying he has a “compelling vision” for Florida. The controversial former House member was Trump’s first choice for attorney general before he withdrew amid an Ethics Committee probe into him and accusations of sexual misconduct and illicit drug use, which he denies.
State Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez are other possible candidates, but the biggest wildcard may be Florida first lady Casey DeSantis.
NBC News reported Thursday that the governor’s wife is considering a run, which would be her first for political office.
Louisiana GOP Senate primary
Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) has been a possible target for a primary challenge since his condemnation of Trump’s role in the events of Jan. 6, 2021, and for voting to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial on incitement of insurrection.
Trump has repeatedly criticized Cassidy, who has already picked up at least one primary challenge.
Louisiana state Treasurer John Fleming announced in December that he would challenge Cassidy for the GOP nomination, saying the state needed a “true conservative voice.”
Cassidy’s campaign has projected confidence at his prospects, noting his large amount of cash on hand and voting record overwhelmingly supporting Trump initiatives. But others could join the race too, including Rep. Clay Higgins (R).
One additional obstacle for Cassidy may be the repeal of Louisiana’s “jungle” primary in which all candidates appeared on the same ballot and the top two advanced to the general election.
Starting in 2026, candidates for Senate will take part in partisan primaries, leaving Cassidy to campaign just for Republicans and unaffiliated voters.
Michigan Senate primaries
The race for Michigan’s Senate seat in 2026 suddenly came to life at the end of last month when Sen. Gary Peters (D) announced he wouldn’t seek a third term in office.
Possible candidates on both sides of the aisle quickly indicated they were considering a bid, and the primaries for both could get crowded.
On the Democratic side, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg seems to be inching toward announcing his candidacy after moving to Michigan in 2022. Polling shows, and analysts said, he would likely be an early frontrunner, but he could be joined in the race by candidates like Reps. Haley Stevens and Hillary Scholten and state Attorney General Dana Nessel.
For the GOP, the 2024 Republican nominee for Senate, former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), has said he’s thinking of trying again after losing by less than 20,000 votes in November. But he could face opponents like 2022 GOP gubernatorial nominee Tudor Dixon and Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.), among others.
New York Democratic gubernatorial primary
Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) is seeking her second full term in office after becoming governor in the aftermath of former Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s (D) resignation from office and her own successful election.
But her favorability rating has been poor for months, and she seems likely to face significant obstacles to reelection, potentially both in the primary and general election if she wins the Democratic nomination.
A poll this month from Siena College found only one in three New York voters would reelect her, while 57 percent said they would prefer someone else. Among Democrats, only 55 percent view her favorably.
Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) has been a sharp critic of Hochul and seems most likely to challenge her in the primary. He called Hochul the “new Joe Biden” in not understanding their vulnerabilities and that they should drop out of their election.
He also argued that Trump’s improvement in the Democratic stronghold in November shows a “vote of no confidence” in the state’s leadership. If he goes forward, Torres could give Hochul an intense challenge.
Ohio GOP gubernatorial primary
Vivek Ramaswamy is widely expected to join the race to succeed term-limited Gov. Mike DeWine (R) this month and will be a quick favorite for the nomination.
Ramaswamy’s profile rose significantly in the GOP presidential primaries and as a close ally to Trump, and he’s already received significant support before even launching his bid. Sens. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), Mike Lee (R-Utah) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.) have all declared their support for him, and some of Vice President Vance’s top political advisers are expected to be part of his campaign team.
He won’t be alone in the primary, as state Attorney General Dave Yost has already declared his candidacy. Yost has had extensive experience in Ohio politics.
But Ramaswamy seems to be in a strong position. A poll from Fabrizio, Lee & Associates showed Ramaswamy with 52 percent in a hypothetical GOP primary to Yost’s 18 percent.
State Treasurer Robert Sprague was expected to run but declined and endorsed Ramaswamy.
Texas GOP Senate primary
Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R) is set to run for his fifth term in the Senate, but he may face the biggest challenge of his career from state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R).
Cornyn and Paxton have sparred for years over various issues. Paxton has accused Cornyn of being insufficiently conservative and attacked him for his support for additional U.S. aid to Ukraine and the gun safety bill.
Cornyn has slammed Paxton over the attorney general’s legal issues and 2023 impeachment.
Paxton has said he would decide whether to run in the next few months and an aide told The Hill he’s meeting with donors and voters across the state.
The potential matchup could become the latest proxy battle between two wings of the state party, the establishment and the staunch conservatives. The battle has taken place recently in the state House and in Paxton’s impeachment trial, in which he was acquitted.
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