5 races to keep on your radar in early 2025
A mix of high-profile and local races will take place in the first few months of this year, which could serve as a barometer for how voters feel just months after the 2024 presidential election.
Virginia is set to hold several special elections in the state legislature, which could have implications for the balance of power in both chambers. In Wisconsin, voters will weigh in on a high-stakes state Supreme Court race will determine the partisan tilt on the high court.
Other races will have implications for the makeup of Congress and the Democratic Party at large. Three special elections will fill House seats vacated by nominations in President-elect Trump's Cabinet and other high-profile assignments. Next month, Democrats will choose their next Democratic National Committee (DNC) chair.
Here’s a look at five races to watch for in early 2025:
3 special elections kick off in Virginia legislature
Virginia voters are set to weigh in on three state legislative elections on Tuesday, with two state Senate seats and one state House seat up for grabs.
Republican John McGuire and Democrat Suhas Subramanyam won seats in Congress. McGuire previously represented a state Senate district just west of Richmond, while Subramanyam represented a state Senate district in Loudoun County.
Democrat Jack Trammell and Republican Luther Cifers are running to replace McGuire in state Senate District 10, while Republican Tumay Harding and Del. Kannan Srinivasan (D) are competing for Subramanyam's seat in state Senate District 32.
Srinivasan’s decision to vie for one of the open state Senate seats has left a vacancy with his seat in state House District 26, where Republican Ram Venkatachalam and Democrat JJ Singh are looking to win his spot.
McGuire’s old seat is Republican-favored, while the seats of Subramanyam and Srinivasan are ones where Democrats are considered the favorites, according to the Virginia Public Access Project.
If Republicans were able to flip one state Senate seat, they could regain control of the chamber. If Democrats lose their state House seat, it could create a tie between the two parties. Still, both scenarios would be considered major upsets.
Elections to replace outgoing House members
Both parties are gearing up for three elections to replace several former and current House members.
Former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) was initially tapped by President-elect Trump to be his attorney general, but he later dropped out as it became clear he didn’t have enough support to get confirmed in the Senate.
Gaetz, who represents Florida’s 1st Congressional District, has said he’s not intending to return to Congress this session – prompting a Jan. 28 primary and April 1 election to fill the seat.
Trump waded into the primary to endorse Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis.
Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.), who represents Florida's 6th Congressional District, has been tapped to be Trump’s national security adviser, a role that doesn’t require Senate confirmation. He’s expected to resign on Jan. 20, and his successor will fill out his term. Florida state Sen. Randy Fine (R) has notched Trump’s endorsement for that seat. Both Florida districts are GOP-favored.
Both Florida districts will have primaries on Jan. 28 and the special election on April 1.
Trump chose Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) to be his ambassador to the U.N., which will prompt a special election to fill her seat in New York’s 21st Congressional District. A special election hasn’t been set yet, and both parties will ultimately choose their candidates.
Though Stefanik’s district went for Trump by close to 16 points in 2020, Democrats have held the seat, too. Former Rep. Bill Owens (D-N.Y.) represented the district right before Stefanik.
The race for DNC chair shapes up
A handful of candidates are running to take the helm of the DNC as the party looks to recalibrate after a disappointing election.
Two candidates have emerged as front-runners: State party chairs Ben Wikler of Wisconsin and Ken Martin of Minnesota. Wikler received a high-profile boost to his candidacy this week when Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) endorsed him.
Wikler has also received the backing from several groups, including centrist Third Way, MoveOn and Progressive Change Campaign Committee – demonstrating his appeal among both centrist-minded and progressive Democrats.
Martin, meanwhile, has secured at least 100 endorsements from DNC committee members.
Other candidates include former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, New York state Sen. James Skoufis, former Department of Homeland Security official Nate Snyder, former Maryland Senate candidate Robert Houton and former presidential hopeful Marianne Williamson.
The DNC chair candidates will be able to participate in four forums to showcase their candidacies this month before members of the parties vote on Feb. 1.
Parties vie for control of Wisconsin Supreme Court majority
Two candidates are running for a vacant seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, which will determine its partisan tilt.
Dane County Judge Susan Crawford and former state Attorney General Brad Schimel (R) want to replace outgoing liberal Justice Ann Walsh Bradley. The Wisconsin Supreme Court has a 4-3 liberal tilt, but Bradley’s retirement brings it to a 3-3 split.
The judicial race is nonpartisan in name only, as Democrats rally around Crawford and Republicans have coalesced around Schimel. There is technically a primary taking place on Feb. 18, but it’s likely to serve as a formality – much to the relief of both parties, which will avoid messy, intraparty feuding.
Opportunities to change the partisan makeup of a battleground state’s high court are few and far between. Hot topics that have come before the Wisconsin Supreme Court have included redistricting, abortion and election results, among others.
The last election for a spot on the Wisconsin Supreme Court – which took place in 2023 and also determined its partisan tilt — shattered fundraising records for a state supreme court election. It’s possible this 2025 race could set new fundraising numbers.
The general election is April 1.
Interesting mayoral races to come
Though mayoral elections are often met with less fanfare than midterm or presidential elections, they can offer some interesting clues about voter sentiment months after big elections.
Voters are set to choose a new mayor in Oakland, Calif., on April 15. Former Mayor Sheng Thao was recalled in November amid a confluence of factors, including concerns around public safety and the city’s botched handling of grant that could have gone toward addressing retail theft.
The recall comes as public safety and crime have loomed over several other elections in California. It led to the ousting of George Gascon, who served as the district attorney in Los Angeles County, and Chesa Boudin, the former San Francisco district attorney who was recalled in 2022.
Other mayoral races to keep an eye on in the early months of this year are the Democratic primaries in Pittsburgh and Atlantic City, N.J.
In Pittsburgh, Mayor Ed Gainey (D) is vying for a second term against Allegheny County Controller Corey O’Connor. Gainey knocked off an incumbent during his first run for mayor, though some recent polling for this cycle has suggested Gainey has fierce competition from O’Connor. The Democratic primary is May 20.
In Atlantic City, Mayor Marty Small Sr. has found himself mired in a criminal case. He and his wife were indicted for second-degree endangering the welfare of a child, with Small receiving additional indictments for third-degree terroristic threats and third-degree aggravated assault pertaining to the alleged abuse of their daughter. Small was indicted again last month on a witness tampering charge. Both have denied any wrongdoing.
It’s unclear if someone will contest Small’s reelection bid, though one name has been floated as a possible challenger. The Democratic primary is in June.
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