5 questions facing Trump on trade ahead of his Feb. 1 tariff deadline

Questions are swirling about what President Trump’s trade agenda is going to look like after Day 1 tariffs on traditional U.S. trading partners didn’t materialize.

Trump put out a trade policy memo on his first day in office that directs federal agencies to study U.S. trade with China and to reassess the updated trade deal between the U.S., Canada and Mexico — but stopped short of ordering new import taxes.

Following the memo, he threatened 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting Feb. 1, and floated a 10 percent tariff on goods from China, a sizable reduction from earlier proposals including a 60 percent tariff and a 100 percent tariff.

Now, business groups and industry leaders are eager to know what the final trade package is going to look like. Here are five questions facing Trump on trade.

Timing, size and range of new import taxes

The top questions for businesses are how big the tariffs will be, how many countries they will apply to and when they will go into effect.

After pledging Day 1 tariffs on Canada and Mexico, Trump on Monday punted the start date back to Feb. 1. On Tuesday, he walked back the size of the tariff he wants to impose on China to 10 percent.

Analysts noted the downgrade and wondered if Trump was getting cold feet about getting into a trade war.

“This latest number is less than those threatened in the months leading up to this point, which indicates Trump may be open to caution when it comes to escalation,” Elizabeth Renter, an economist at NerdWallet, wrote in a commentary.

After campaigning on renegotiating U.S. trade deals ahead of his first term, it took Trump two years to impose tariffs, which he did in January 2018.

It took nearly three years to renegotiate the NAFTA deal that turned into the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

What does Trump want out of a new USMCA?

When Trump reworked NAFTA into the USMCA, the new deal added labor protection provisions that had been omitted from the original agreement and helped secure support from unions and some Democratic lawmakers.

“Unlike previous trade-pact labor rules, where sanctions for labor rights violations were paid by a government, individual companies face the consequences of the [updated] system,” trade advocacy organization Rethink Trade wrote in an analysis of the updated deal.

Trump’s Monday trade memo orders a reassessment of the USMCA based in part upon its effect on workers, suggesting potential labor accommodations.

“The United States Trade Representative … shall assess the impact of the USMCA on American workers, farmers, ranchers, service providers, and other businesses,” the memo says.

Trump appointed Republicans as acting chiefs of the Labor Department, National Labor Relations Board and Equal Employment Opportunity Commission this week.

A major overhaul of Biden administration labor policies, including regulations on socially motivated investing, overtime and who gets designated as a contractor as opposed to an employee, is expected to take place.

How will businesses adjust?

Some businesses are sounding apprehensive about where trade ranks in the Trump administration’s priorities.

“Multiple conflicting reports have emerged about the potential implementation of universal tariffs,” Seema Shah, strategist at Principal Asset Management, wrote in a commentary. “With very little detail on tariff plans provided in the President’s inaugural address, the severity and timing of tariffs is still fairly uncertain.”

Amid a chorus of worries from business groups that tariffs could add to inflation, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon told people to “get over it” if tariffs are good for national security.

“If it’s a little inflationary, but if it’s good for national security, so be it. I mean, get over it,” Dimon said during an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, as reported by CNBC.

Following pandemic supply disruptions, the Biden administration exhorted businesses to adjust their supply chains away from some Chinese production centers, actions that new tariffs on China might prompt as well.

While some studies have shown that U.S. businesses switched over to factories in Vietnam and Mexico during this period, there’s uncertainty whether these countries didn’t simply assume an intermediary position, maintaining original sourcing in China.

“Rather than follow every threat (which may not be realized), the basic issues are: every 10-percent tariff is likely to directly raise US consumer prices by 4 percent; second-round effects (less competition, profit-led inflation) are bigger inflation threats; and selective tariffs can be avoided (up to a third of China’s exports to the US reroute),” UBS economist Paul Donovan wrote in an analysis.

How long will tariff hawks wait?

Tariff advocates are supporting Trump despite the delay, but also asserting their expectations for a comprehensive tariff package.

“Unlike most career politicians, President Trump has an excellent track record of making good on his campaign promises, and we fully expect him to implement his robust Trade and Tariff agenda,” Nick Iacovella, vice president with the pro-tariff Coalition for a Prosperous America, wrote in a commentary.

Increasing U.S. industrial capacity is a motivating factor for many U.S. protectionists. While the Biden administration spurred a factory construction investment boom and brought back the term “industrial policy,” those initiatives haven't yet translated into a resurgence in U.S. factory employment.

Will tariffs factor into reconciliation?

Meanwhile over in Congress, Republicans in the House and Senate are working to deliver a wide-ranging bill on border enforcement, energy production and taxes to be passed through the reconciliation process, which doesn’t need any Democratic buy-in.

Presidents can enact tariffs without congressional action, but Trump may want to work with Congress on tariffs since they raise revenue that could be used to offset what is expected to be a very expensive piece of legislation.

Simply extending the 2017 Trump tax cuts that expire this year will add more than $4.5 trillion to the deficit, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Trump made additional promises of tax cuts that could be added on top of that amount, and tariffs may be a way to alleviate them.

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