4 reasons this year's presidential election could blow up America as we know it
During every modern presidential election cycle, pundits and experts have claimed the current election is "the most consequential" — whether it be “in my lifetime,” "in this century" or “since World War II.”
Thankfully, America survived all of those contests and often thrived after a course correction or pendulum swing away from the loser. Looking back, those “most consequential” presidential elections have always seemed tame compared to the next one.
But today, when it comes to 2024, “most consequential” may be tragically understated. The extreme polarization in today's body politic rivals that of the 1860 presidential election won by Abraham Lincoln, whose inauguration was followed by the start of the Civil War just five weeks later.
Like 1860, the 2024 presidential election is fraught with explosive constitutional and institutional issues potentially threatening America’s founding principles. Millions of Americans believe that the preservation of democracy is indirectly on the ballot. So, too, is the potential consolidation of power in an executive branch poised to unbalance tri-equal power shared with the legislative and judicial branches of government.
The perception of an existential crisis for the U.S. is only enhanced by the blockbuster movie “Civil War” and a recent poll that inspired the screaming Drudge Report headline: “41 percent see Civil War ll on the horizon.”
Last month, a Pew Research Center survey found that half of registered voters would prefer replacing both Trump and Biden on the ballot. Pew’s data reinforced a March YouGov/ Yahoo News poll, in which 53 percent of voters chose a combination of dread, exhaustion or depression to describe their feelings about the 2024 rematch.
This unpopular historic Biden-Trump rematch unnerves most Americans paying attention, even many of their supporters. Whoever wins, half the nation will be disgusted, angry, pessimistic and fearful of the future, wondering how America can endure with “that guy” as president for a second term.
And four additional “minefield” issues could explode during the campaign’s final six months or before the 2025 inauguration, further exacerbating that pessimism.
1. The first pertains to whether the loser will accept the outcome. Trump has continually planted seeds for potential unrest, even predicting the end of democracy if he loses. On CNN in May 2023, Trump qualified his acceptance of the 2024 results by saying, “If I think it’s an honest election, I would be honored to.”
Recently, Trump doubled down on that qualifier. During a Milwaukee Journal Sentinel interview, he said, “If everything’s honest, I’d gladly accept the results,” adding, “If it’s not, you have to fight for the right of the country.” Trump has yet to explain that “fight” statement — perceived as a “dog whistle” for encouraging political violence — nor defined his criteria for “everything’s honest.” This is a warning.
After numerous court decisions and recounts, Trump still believes the 2020 election was stolen, making it a test of loyalty. Now, it appears not committing to accepting the 2024 results is a litmus test for his vice-presidential nominee.
If Trump loses on Nov. 5, will he again try to subvert democracy as he allegedly did on Jan. 6, 2021, for which he has been indicted? A potential minefield surrounds your voting booth.
2. America’s smooth presidential transition has always shown the world why we are a beacon of freedom and democracy, even after contentious or close elections. This is why the events of Jan. 6, 2021, unnerved our allies and delighted our enemies. That means on Jan. 20, 2025, America must prove the last transition was an aberration. A repeat of such violence could create a national security situation for our enemies to exploit.
3. In 2024, several courtrooms sit atop political minefields.
Trump’s Jan. 6 trial and the Mar-a-Lago documents case are now on hold. America’s judicial system is built on faith and trust that “no person is above the law.” Nonetheless, what could be construed as a double travesty of delayed federal justice has been orchestrated by (some would say) a Trump-friendly Supreme Court and Trump-appointed Florida U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon. Delays by both courts could ensure that neither Trump’s Jan. 6-related trial nor the Mar-a-Lago documents case trial are held before Election Day.
Sixty-four percent of Americans want the Jan. 6 trial to occur sooner. But several conservative Supreme Court justices appear much more interested in how their ruling would affect future presidents' claims of immunity than they are about Trump’s specific claims about his actions Jan. 6. If voters are denied a verdict on whether Trump is guilty of trying to overturn the 2020 election to remain in power, there could be a voter backlash.
This week, Cannon postponed indefinitely Trump’s 37-count indictment for refusing to return top secret government documents allegedly removed from the White House. Reacting to that news, former Trump White House attorney Ty Cobb called Cannon's decision “really inexplicable” and “tragic.”
4. The “battleground states presidential election” has reached a tipping point: A 2023 Pew Research Study found that 65 percent of American adults favor a nationwide popular vote to elect the president. Six battleground states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina) will totally dominate Biden's and Trump’s campaign to win 270 Electoral College votes, severely warping where they spend time and money. An angry sentiment that “my vote doesn’t count” has long been growing among Americans who live outside of presidentially relevant states.
If Trump or Biden wins only the unpopular Electoral College but loses the popular vote — as Trump did in 2016 — Civil War-level outrage could result.
Myra Adams served on the creative team of two GOP presidential campaigns, in 2004 and 2008.
Date: |
Filter
-
Venezuela’s 2024 Presidential Election: What to Know
Venezuela’s election features an opposition candidate with a slim, if improbable, chance of defeating the country’s long-ruling authoritarian leader.The New York Times - World -
South Africa's election could bring a defining moment — and new complications. Here's what to know
Yahoo News - World -
South Africa's election could bring a defining moment — and new complications. Here's what to know
South Africa’s election will determine how weary the country has become of the ruling African National Congress party, which has been in power since the end of apartheid 30 years agoABC News - World -
The Office Follow-Up: Cast, Story, Setting, Potential Release Window, And Everything Else We Know
The Office is coming back (sort of) More than a decade after The Office ended in 2013 (and more than 20 years since the original BBC series), Greg Daniels is creating a follow-up to The Office. No, it's not a reboot or a revival that brings back ...GameSpot - Tech -
Jane Schoenbrun Wants to Blow Up Your TV
Growing up, director Jane Schoenbrun escaped into shows like The X-Files and Twin Peaks. Their new movie is about the relief, and danger, of getting lost in screens.Wired - Tech -
Trade policy is the new front in the US presidential election
Also in today’s newsletter, how Ray Dalio is thinking about the electionFinancial Times - World -
South of France, but not as we know it: exploring Nîmes and the Gard
Unesco listing for the city’s Roman temple put this city on the map last year, but there are uncharted delights in the surrounding towns as well. The director of a newly refurbished boutique hotel in the old town of Nîmes tells me he has gained ...The Guardian - World -
Duncan Wanblad: the ‘used mine salesman’ blowing up Anglo American
South African group’s chief executive must win over investors to fend off BHP’s unsolicited takeover bidFinancial Times - Business -
Women are worried about their financial security. That may affect the 2024 presidential election
Women say they are worried about their finances, from a higher cost of living to reduced retirement income, and that could affect the November election.CNBC - Business -
Why EU monitors should observe Venezuela’s presidential election
The democratic aspirations of the South American nation’s hard-pressed citizens deserve encouragementFinancial Times - World - European Union
More from The Hill
-
Colorado tackles discrimination in AI
Welcome to The Hill's Technology newsletter {beacon} Technology Technology The Big Story Colorado governor signs AI law Colorado will require developers of artificial intelligence (AI) to avoid discrimination in high-risk systems as part of a ...The Hill - Politics -
What is the ICC?
The International Criminal Court (ICC) was in the global spotlight Monday after its prosecutor requested arrest warrants for two Hamas leaders, along with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his defense minister, claiming the court has ...The Hill - Politics -
US lashes out after Israeli officials targeted with arrest warrants
U.S. officials went on the offensive Monday after the International Criminal Court (ICC) filed arrest warrants against two top Israeli leaders over the war in Gaza, a move that Congress and the White House slammed for equating Israel's conduct ...The Hill - Politics - Israel -
Evening Report — Prosecution rests after tough day on the stand for Michael Cohen
A quick recap of the day and what to look forward to tomorrow {beacon} Evening Report Monday, May 20 © Angela Weiss/Pool Photo via AP/Andres Kudacki Prosecution rests after a tough day on the stand for Michael Cohen Prosecutors for the ...The Hill - Politics -
FDIC chair says he'll resign once successor is confirmed
Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) Chair Martin Gruenberg announced Monday he will resign once his successor is confirmed by the Senate after several reports documented a culture of sexual harassment, misconduct and retaliation at the agency ...The Hill - Politics