4 groups to watch as House GOP eyes vote on advancing Trump agenda
House Republicans are eyeing a vote next week on their budget resolution to pass President Trump’s legislative agenda, an effort that increased in urgency after Trump endorsed the lower chamber’s strategy over the Senate’s blueprint.
Republicans on the House Budget Committee advanced the conference’s budget resolution last week, setting the stage for the chamber to craft a single, sweeping bill that would appropriate funding for the border, enact energy policies and extend a slew of tax cuts, among other items on the president’s wish list.
The measure outlines a $1.5 trillion floor for spending cuts across committees with a target of $2 trillion, a $4.5 trillion cap on the deficit impact of the Republicans’ plan to extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, and $300 billion in additional spending for the border and defense. It also increases the debt limit by $4 trillion.
The resolution, however, is not on a glide path to being adopted by the full chamber. Moderates, lawmakers with a high percentage of Medicaid beneficiaries and lawmakers leery of raising the debt limit all have their own — often competing — concerns.
Provisions that appease one group risk losing favor with another. And, assuming all Democrats vote as expected, Republicans can afford to lose only one vote.
Here are the four groups to watch as the House GOP eyes a vote on its budget resolution.
Moderate Republicans
Moderate Republicans have been the most outspoken skeptics of the House GOP’s budget resolution, with many of them withholding their votes until they receive more information and assurances on the legislation.
The group’s qualms largely center on potential cuts to Medicaid. The budget resolution orders the House Energy and Commerce Committee — which has jurisdiction over Medicaid — to find at least $880 billion in cuts, a number that many believe cannot be reached unless the conference makes slashes to the social safety net program.
That notion is prompting concerns among some moderates.
Reps. David Valadao (R-Calif.) and Don Bacon (R-Neb.) told The Hill they were undecided on the measure, while Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) said she is “leaning no.” Valadao noted last week “there’s at least double digits of people who are severely concerned.”
“And I think as people start to understand the specifics of how it’s going to affect their districts, I imagine that number grows,” said Valadao, who represents a purple battleground district.
In 2023, 48.7 percent of Valadao’s constituents in California’s 22nd Congressional District younger than 65 were covered by Medicaid and/or Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP), according to Georgetown University’s McCourt School of Public Policy. In New York’s 11th Congressional District, represented by Malliotakis, 26.8 percent of constituents younger than 65 were covered by Medicaid/CHIP. And 13.9 percent of constituents younger than 65 in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, represented by Bacon, were covered by Medicaid/CHIP.
Republicans representing many Medicaid beneficiaries
It is not just moderates, however, who could develop concerns with the potential Medicaid cuts.
Millions of Americans across the country — including those in ruby-red districts — are Medicaid beneficiaries, a fact that could prompt some conservative lawmakers to take issue with the potential slashes.
In 2023, for example, Alabama’s 4th Congressional District was the most conservative in the country, according to Cook Political Report. That same year, 19.1 percent of the district’s constituents had Medicaid/CHIP coverage. In Kentucky’s 5th Congressional District — the second-most conservative district in the country in 2023, per Cook Political Report — 38.3 percent of constituents had Medicaid/CHIP coverage.
Some lawmakers are predicting that those numbers could prompt conservative opposition to the potential Medicaid cuts.
“I think there’s a lot of people in pretty conservative districts that this has a really negative impact on their districts and their states,” Valadao said last week. “I think there’s a lot more people concerned than just moderates.”
Republicans resistant to debt limit increases
The House GOP’s budget resolution includes a $4 trillion increase in the debt limit, a provision that could spark opposition among some hard-line Republicans.
Two House GOP lawmakers — Reps. Tim Burchett (Tenn.) and Andy Biggs (Ariz.) — have never voted for an increase in the borrowing limit and may not be interested in breaking that trend this time around.
Asked about the $4 trillion debt limit increase in the budget resolution, Burchett told The Hill it made him feel “very uneasy.”
“My concern is always, has been the fiscal security of our country and pay down our enormous debt, which no one seems to have a plan to go after yet, from either party,” he added.
In a positive sign for leadership, however, the conservative House Freedom Caucus proposed a reconciliation framework last month that included a two-year, roughly $4 trillion debt ceiling increase, a sign that some in the group may be open to lifting the borrowing limit.
Aside from Burchett and Biggs, there are a handful of House Republicans who have a history of being resistant to debt limit increase, including Reps. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.), two lawmakers who could be key to the success of the resolution.
Deficit hawks
The push for deeper spending cuts by deficit hawks was a central impediment to the House Budget Committee being able to advance a resolution last week, which prompted an eleventh-hour agreement on an amendment that earned their support and allowed the measure to go forward — a sign that they may not put up hurdles this time around.
The amendment, which was adopted in a party-line vote in committee, would give teeth to a $2 trillion deficit reduction target outlined in the bill and allow Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Texas), the chair of the Budget committee, to increase the cap on the deficit impact of the tax portion of the reconciliation package if additional spending cuts are made in other areas.
Hard-line conservatives, including the House Freedom Caucus, lauded the development. The conservative group posted a GIF on the social platform X that said “JACKPOT!” accompanied by the message: “The House Freedom Caucus secured a budget resolution that has 7 times more spending cuts than the original Republican plan!”
Still, however, some last-minute snags could creep up, especially as moderates voice concerns with the depth of spending cuts, and as leadership gets ready to craft the final bill. Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), for example, supported the resolution in committee last week and signaled he would do the same on the House floor, but he noted he did so despite “reservations,” a signal that some deficit hawks could still be on the fence.
“Today I voted to report the Chairman’s FY25 Budget Resolution out of the Budget Committee. I did so with reservations due to the urgency of our current debt crisis and my concern that there is insufficient resolve in Congress to address that crisis, thus leaving Americans with the devastating tax of inflation and high interest rates,” Roy said. “Yet the bill would — if adopted by Republicans on the House floor — represent an historic level of spending reductions paired with extension and expansion of President Trump’s tax policies and would take a significant step down the path to fiscal sanity while simultaneously delivering on critical portions of President Trump's agenda.”
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