12:30 Report — Johnson scrambles to corral GOP funding votes

12:30 REPORT

It’s Tuesday. It’s a stunningly beautiful day, and I wish Congress would move its business outside. TBH, I think a little fresh air would help everyone.

Today's forecast in DC: ☀️ 60° (Find your weather here)

In today's issue:

Government funding negotiations latest
White House gets involved; Trump threatens GOP “no” vote
Trump doubles Canadian metal tariffs
Southwest ditches free luggage policy 👎

🛑 On Capitol Hill

I swear, if it’s a beautiful spring weekend and the parks end up being closed …:

Today is a big day in the government funding saga — and it’s looking precarious at best. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is weaving through a series of puzzle pieces to pass the six-month funding plan he unveiled over the weekend. He needs all but one Republican to agree, and as of 12:30 p.m., it still seems uncertain.

Bringing in the bigger guns: Vice President Vance is on Capitol Hill today to take a stab at negotiations among Republicans. He attended a House Republican Conference meeting this morning, and his message was clear: Vote for the current bill because that’s what the boss (President Trump) wants.

^ A source relayed Vance’s message from the closed-door meeting to The Hill's Mychael Schnell: "If it fails in the House, R’s will be blamed. If it fails in the Senate, Schumer will be blamed. If it passes and is signed into law, America will benefit!"

Did Vance’s message change anything?: Several Republicans are still on the fence, per CNN’s count. Nearly a dozen Republicans are currently undecided or leaning toward “no.” A looming question: Will any vulnerable Democrats help Republicans?

One Republican is getting on Trump’s nerves: Republican Rep. Thomas Massie (Ky.) said he will not support the bill, making him the only Republican “no” vote Johnson can afford. Trump is angry, vowing to “lead the charge” to unseat Massie for it. (Though, Johnson still called Massie “a friend” despite his opposition.) FWIW, Massie is fundraising off Trump’s threat.

What’s the plan today?: The House will vote on Republicans’ government funding plan at 4 p.m. — and then they’re leaving town. That doesn’t give the Senate any wiggle room. Assuming House Republicans end up passing their funding bill, senators must either accept it or reject it. House lawmakers won’t be around to tweak it later this week.

Brief reminder on what needs to happen: If Johnson is able to corral the caucus and pass the bill, it moves to the Senate, where a simple majority doesn’t cut it. At least 60 votes are needed to clear the threshold, meaning at least seven Democrats have to agree (assuming all Republicans vote in unison). This all needs to be hammered out by Friday at 11:59 p.m.

What’s in the bill?: It would boost defense spending by roughly $6 billion. It would also cut nondefense spending by about $13 billion. Republicans argue it’s a “clean” bill, but Democrats slammed cuts to health care, nutritional assistance and veterans’ benefits.

🗨️ Follow today’s live blog — there are a lot of moving parts, so I find it particularly helpful on days like today.

If there is a shutdown, who gets blamed?:

That’s the exact question congressional leadership is trying to balance. While Republicans are in charge of the House, the Senate and the White House (all despite lack of total unity), Senate Democrats could absorb much of the blame of a government shutdown.

On one hand: Democratic senators are critical of the House bill, arguing it gives Trump and tech billionaire Elon Musk too much power to redirect government funding and eliminate programs.

But on the other hand: If the funding saga gets held up in the Senate, it would likely be Democrats’ fault. And the party worries Trump and Musk could also make a shutdown very painful for federal workers.

The Hill’s Alexander Bolton spoke with Dems about a new fear: “There’s growing fear among Democrats that Trump could feel politically emboldened to let a shutdown drag on for many weeks, and that, in turn, could give Musk more leverage to push federal workers to retire, as many might feel financial pressure to look for work in the private sector if they have to endure weeks without a paycheck.”

So, what will Democrats do?: We shall see, but Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) did not declare the bill dead on arrival.

Read Bolton’s reporting: ‘Senate Democrats leery of blocking GOP bill fear shutdown politics have changed’

➤ BTW, THIS FUNDING BILL COULD REALLY AFFECT D.C.:

Washington Mayor Muriel Bowser (D) blasted the bill for cutting $1 billion out of the District’s budget.

The Washington Post notes that “almost every D.C. lawmaker” stood in front of the U.S. Capitol on Monday to advocate against this part of the bill.

As if Canada wasn’t already mad enough:

President Trump has escalated the U.S.’s trade war with Canada, announcing he will double tariffs on Canadian metal from 25 percent to 50 percent.

Why?: The Ontario government imposed an electricity surcharge against the U.S. as part of the growing trade war. That surcharge will affect electricity sales for 1.5 million homes and businesses in the U.S.

This could cost up to $400,000 a day, so Trump said he would declare a national emergency to alleviate the pain of the surcharge.

Clean up on aisle DOGE:

The White House promised there will *not* be any cuts to Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid benefits after Trump’s top ally Elon Musk made comments about the need to examine entitlement spending.

What started this?: Musk did a rare television interview on Monday with Fox Business Network and noted that most government spending is on entitlements.

The line getting attention: “So, the waste and fraud in entitlement spending, which is all of the — which is most of the federal spending is entitlements. So, that’s, like, the big one to eliminate,” Musk told former Trump official Larry Kudlow, suggesting it could amount to more than $500 billion in annual savings.

The big political risks: Cuts to programs like Social Security or Medicare would trigger intense backlash politically, and Trump has repeatedly vowed not to touch them.

➤ HOW’S TRUMP’S APPROVAL RATING DOING …?:

The president’s approval rating dipped by 2 points, according to a new Emerson College Polling survey. 47 percent of voters approve of his job performance, dropping from 49 percent when he took office.

➤ MORE READS:

The Wall Street Journal: Wall Street Fears Trump Will Wreck the Soft Landing
The New York Times: Trump Promised Americans Booming Wealth. His Language Is Changing.

🐝 Internet Buzz

🍎 Celebrate: Today is National Johnny Appleseed Day. I vividly remember celebrating this in elementary school. Anyone else?

🧳 Southwest broke my heart: Southwest Airlines will no longer offer free checked bags for most customers.

🎙️ Michelle Obama is in the podcasting game: Former first lady Michelle Obama and her brother Craig Robinson are launching a podcast.

🧑‍🤝‍🧑 If you’re wondering about the vibes in D.C. these days: “Overheard District” posted a conversation heard in the Navy Yard neighborhood of Washington on a Monday morning: “Is nobody at work today? Why are there so many people?” The response: “Literally everyone got laid off.”

📆 On The Agenda

The House and Senate are in. President Trump and Vice President Vance are in Washington. (all times Eastern)

12:30 p.m.: Trump and Vance have lunch together.
1 p.m.: White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt briefs reporters. 💻 Livestream
1:30 p.m.: First House votes of the day. 📆 Today’s agenda
2:15 p.m.: Two Senate votes, including a confirmation vote on the deputy transportation secretary. 📆 Today’s agenda
4 p.m.: Last House votes.
5 p.m.: Trump speaks at the Business Roundtable Quarterly Meeting. 💻 Livestream

👋 And Finally…

Who needs a snowplow when you have a dog who loves a task?

Miss yesterday's 12:30 Report? Catch up with a 1-minute video recap here.

Stay Engaged

Send comments, story ideas and events for our radar to cmartel@thehill.com. A friend forward this to you? Subscribe here.

View past issues of 12:30 Report here and check out other newsletters from The Hill here. See you next time!

Topics

Vance gives House GOP closing pitch on Trump-backed funding bill ahead of vote

Vice President Vance delivered a closing pitch in favor of Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) government funding bill during the House GOP’s private conference meeting Tuesday, hours before the lower ...
The Hill - 14h
House Democrats have 'a lot of incentives' to vote against short-term funding bill

NBC Senior National Political Reporter Sahil Kapur joins Meet the Press NOW to discuss Speaker Johnson's plan to fund the government as top Democrats urge the House to reject the short-term funding ...
NBC News - 1d
Democrats ‘applying maximum hurt’ for ‘political gain’ in government funding fight: GOP lawmaker

President Trump is urging Republicans to support Speaker Mike Johnson’s short-term government funding bill. Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) joins Meet the Press NOW to discuss the upcoming vote.
NBC News - 8h
Morning Report — This week: Funding suspense, tariff two-step, DOGE bites

In today’s issue: Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) says he has the votes to dodge a possible government shutdown by next weekend. A floor vote could happen Tuesday under his plan, which envisions ...
The Hill - 1d
Johnson confident ahead of government funding vote

Politico - 16h
Trump-district Democrats face risky vote on GOP spending bill

House Democrats in districts carried by President Trump are confronting a potentially risky vote next week when GOP leaders are expected to put their partisan government funding bill on the floor. ...
The Hill - 2d
Shutdown fears grow as House Republicans battle over funding bill

House Speaker Mike Johnson is set to hold a vote on a GOP spending proposal, but opposition from both parties puts its passage in doubt. With Democrats vowing to vote against it and some ...
CBS News - 16h
House GOP budget plan would cut domestic spending by $13 billion

House Speaker Mike Johnson has unveiled his plan to avert a government shutdown by Friday night. The short-term stopgap bill would fund the government until Sept. 30, increase defense spending by ...
CBS News - 1d
Watch live: House GOP leaders speak ahead of key vote to avert shutdown

House Republican leaders will speak Tuesday morning ahead of a key vote on the stopgap bill that would fund the government through September. The House Rules Committee voted Monday night to advance ...
The Hill - 15h

More from The Hill

Judge declines to block DOGE from taking over African development agency

A federal judge on Tuesday declined to block the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) from taking over the U.S. African Development Foundation (USADF). U.S. District Judge Richard Leon ...
The Hill - 1h
Lutnick says Trump tariffs 'worth it' even if they lead to recession

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Tuesday that President Trump’s tariff policies will be worth it, even if the economy ends up in a recession. In an interview that aired Tuesday, CBS News’s ...
The Hill - 1h
Democrat wins special election for Minnesota state House seat

Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) candidate David Gottfried is projected to win a special election for a seat in the Minnesota House, according to Decision Desk HQ. Gottfried, a pro bono ...
The Hill - 2h
GOP Rep. Mark Harris says Trump has done 'tremendous job' making case against Education Department

Rep. Mark Harris (R-N.C.) said on Tuesday that President Trump successfully made the case against the Department of Education during his 2024 campaign, leading more Republicans to support the ...
The Hill - 2h
Sununu on possible Senate bid: 'I have not ruled it out completely'

Former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) said he is considering running for Senate after previously rejecting the possibility. “I have not ruled it out completely, but folks in Washington have ...
The Hill - 4h

More in Politics

Judge declines to block DOGE from taking over African development agency

A federal judge on Tuesday declined to block the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) from taking over the U.S. African Development Foundation (USADF). U.S. District Judge Richard Leon ...
The Hill - 1h
Lutnick says Trump tariffs 'worth it' even if they lead to recession

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Tuesday that President Trump’s tariff policies will be worth it, even if the economy ends up in a recession. In an interview that aired Tuesday, CBS News’s ...
The Hill - 1h
Democrat wins special election for Minnesota state House seat

Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) candidate David Gottfried is projected to win a special election for a seat in the Minnesota House, according to Decision Desk HQ. Gottfried, a pro bono ...
The Hill - 2h
GOP Rep. Mark Harris says Trump has done 'tremendous job' making case against Education Department

Rep. Mark Harris (R-N.C.) said on Tuesday that President Trump successfully made the case against the Department of Education during his 2024 campaign, leading more Republicans to support the ...
The Hill - 2h
Sununu on possible Senate bid: 'I have not ruled it out completely'

Former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) said he is considering running for Senate after previously rejecting the possibility. “I have not ruled it out completely, but folks in Washington have ...
The Hill - 4h