12:30 Report — Johnson fights for Speakership

12:30 REPORT

It’s the first Friday of 2025! Happy first day of the 119th Congress to all who celebrate. It sure is off to an eventful start. Here’s what’s happening:

Mike Johnson is fighting to keep his Speakership.
The pros and cons of Johnson cutting a deal to keep the gavel.
Trump pushes House Republicans to keep Johnson as Speaker.
The U.S. surgeon general sounded the alarm on alcohol’s cancer risk.
Meghan, the Duchess of Sussex is launching a Netflix show on Jan. 15.

I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Send tips, commentary, feedback and cookie recipes to cmartel@thehill.com. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here. 

📺 Happening Now

Mike's big moment:

Rep. Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) Speakership is hanging on by a thread. The 119th Congress just gaveled in at noon, and its first order of business is to select its Speaker.

What’s happening right now: House lawmakers are about to vote for the Speaker. It’s possible he ekes out a win on the first ballot, but it’s also increasingly possible he doesn’t reach the majority threshold and the process moves to more ballots.

🗨️ Follow our live blog to watch today’s drama unfold

💻 Watch the House vote live

📝 Whip list of where critical lawmakers stand

📹 Watch Johnson head to the floor before the vote (From CNN’s Manu Raju)

Johnson is the GOP’s best bet at receiving enough votes — remember the McCarthy drama of October 2023? — but that still may not be enough.

➤ THE DYNAMICS AT PLAY:

Republicans’ razor-thin margin means that Johnson needs the support of all but one Republican lawmaker.

So far, Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) is that one lawmaker. He went as far as to say, “You can pull all my fingernails out, you can shove bamboo up in them, you can start cutting off my fingers” when asked if he would vote for Johnson. Alrighty then …

All Democrats are present, notes Punchbowl’s John Bresnahan. That means Republicans have no extra wiggle room.

Massie is the only defection Johnson can lose: Meanwhile, at least half a dozen hardline conservatives are on the fence about letting Johnson keep the gavel. Potential GOP holdouts to watch:

Rep. Andy Biggs (Ariz.)

Rep. Tim Burchett (Tenn.)

Rep. Lauren Boebert (Colo.)

Rep. Eric Burlison (Mo.)

Rep. Ralph Norman (S.C.)

Rep. Scott Perry (Pa.)

Rep. Andy Harris (Md.)

Rep. Chip Roy (Texas)

^ To sweeten the deal for some of these Republicans: Some hardline conservatives want Johnson to name Roy as the chair of the powerful House Rules Committee.

Is Johnson open to that?: It’s tricky. The reason conservatives are unhappy with Johnson in the first place is because he cut deals in the recent spending battle. If Johnson cuts deals to keep the gavel, he risks ending up in the same predicament that ultimately cost former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) the gavel. However, if the Speaker fight goes to multiple ballots, Johnson may need to cut a deal to end a stalemate.

Politico’s Jordain Carney and Olivia Beavers have a helpful read on the tricky predicament Johnson is in.

Where does Trump stand in all of this?: President-elect Trump backs Johnson. In fact, he gave Johnson a public boost this morning. Read Trump’s full post

He also called into CNN late this morning, predicting that Johnson will do well. “He's a very fine individual, he's religious, he's smart, he's strong. Everybody likes him. Everybody respects him,” Trump told CNN. 📹 Watch the clip

💡 Why this matters: The House is always filled with drama — the internal haggling is to be expected, especially with all the competing personalities in the Republican Party. But today also marks the first day of the GOP controlling both the House and the Senate. President-elect Trump will be inaugurated in just a few weeks and backs Johnson. If Republicans are still comfortable balking Trump’s wishes, it sets the mood for the incoming GOP trifecta.

Maybe the House should make this Speaker vote into a bowl game. Though this year’s Pop-Tarts Bowl is admittedly hard to top.

➤ TIDBITS:

First day of school vibes: “The first day of a new Congress is awesome. Small children everywhere! New members kind of lost! Also parents of new members! Who will be the speaker? What color are the member pins?” (From Politico’s Katherine Tully-McManus)

Check out the new Thune sign: The wooden sign for incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) is being installed. 📸 Photo

It’s a fun day to watch C-SPAN: C-SPAN is controlling the cameras on the House floor today and on Monday, Jan. 6. When this happens, we tend to see more interesting angles and zoomed-in camera shots of lawmakers. NPR read on the camera debate

➤ MORE READS:

The New York Times: John Thune Takes Charge in the Senate, Ushering in a New Leadership Era
The Hill: Thune says preserving the Senate filibuster will be a top priority
Axios: GOP moderates warn Johnson not to repeat McCarthy's deal

🍸 News This Morning

Well, this was aptly timed for Dry January:

The U.S. surgeon general announced this morning that alcohol is the third leading preventable cause of cancer (behind tobacco and obesity) — and called for a warning label to be added to alcoholic beverages.

Which cancers?: It is linked to at least seven types of cancer, including breast, mouth and throat cancers. The risk starts to increase around one or fewer drinks per day.

Can the surgeon general mandate the warning label?: No, Congress would ultimately decide. The current language, which specifies risks while pregnant or driving, hasn’t been updated since 1998.

Related analysis, via The New York Times: ‘The Battle Over What to Tell Americans About Drinking’

Plus, via The Wall Street Journal: ‘The Mystery of What’s Causing Young People’s Cancer Leads to the Gut’

Trump ❤️ TikTok:

“President-elect Trump doubled down on his support for TikTok on Friday, as the popular social media app prepares to argue against an impending ban before the Supreme Court next week.”

Trump wrote on Truth Social: “Why would I want to get rid of TikTok?” Trump then included some of his accounts’ statistics on TikTok.

🐝 Internet Buzz

🍒 A reason to celebrate: Today is National Chocolate Covered Cherry Day! Plus, Saturday is National Spaghetti Day!

📺 Meghan's hard launch back into the spotlight: Meghan, the Duchess of Sussex, announced that her new Netflix show, “With Love, Meghan,” will premiere on Jan. 15 on Netflix. 📹 Watch the trailer

💎 Jill Biden got a $20,000 diamond as a gift: The Bidens were given tens of thousands of dollars in gifts in 2023, according to annual accounting, including first lady Jill Biden receiving a 7.5-carat diamond from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Here are more of the gifts they received

📆 On The Agenda

The House and Senate are in! President Biden and Vice President Harris are in Washington. (all times Eastern)

Noon: The Senate meets. Harris swears in new senators. 📆 Today’s agenda
Noon: The House officially begins the 119th Congress. 📆 Today’s agenda
12:20 p.m.: Biden hosts a Medal of Valor ceremony in the Oval Office. This is closed to press.
1:15 p.m.: White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre briefs reporters. 💻 Livestream
5 p.m.: Biden delivers remarks at a Medal of Honor ceremony. 💻 Livestream

👋 And Finally…

2025 will be the year of self-care. This dog has already taken that to heart.

Stay Engaged

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View past issues of 12:30 Report here and check out other newsletters from The Hill here. See you next time!

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