Gambling on 'vibes' — why the betting markets are getting the election all wrong

The betting markets currently have Donald Trump at a 62% chance of winning Tuesday's election, but this is based on the bettors' models that rely on social media engagement, which may not ...

Politics - The Hill - Yesterday

Wall Street is going all-in on election betting markets. What you need to know.

Political betting markets aren’t new, but a too-close-to-call, high-stakes presidential election and wariness over traditional polling has led Wall Street investors to look to the shifting ...

Business - MarketWatch - October 26

Billionaire Game Theory + We Are Not Ready for A.G.I. + Election Betting Markets Get Weird

“If I had $1 billion, how would I try to influence the results of this election?”

Tech - The New York Times - 3 days ago

The stock market still leans to this candidate winning the presidential election

The Dow’s indication of who will win the U.S. presidency deserves to be taken seriously.

Business - MarketWatch - October 19

Investors step up bets that US election will trigger market volatility

Jitters sweep through bond and currency markets before presidential vote

World - Financial Times - 4 days ago

Don’t take the betting market odds on Tuesday’s U.S. election too seriously

This year’s U.S. presidential election has suddenly made betting on politics a topic of mainstream conversation.

Business - MarketWatch - 19 hours ago

Don’t bet on a taxing outcome for UK gambling companies

Fears that money would flow from the regulated sector has long deterred action against the industry

Business - Financial Times - October 14

Is it wrong for Elon Musk to offer voters $1m a day to get Trump elected? That’s a tough one | Marina Hyde

The great and good of US media and politics can’t decide if the lavish giveaway is unethical or illegal. I’m no expert, but it seems off to me. For a guy who has spent his entire life making “I am ...

World - The Guardian - October 22

Election betting is newly legal — and risks getting confused with polls

Wagers have been flooding in after a ruling opened the door to U.S. users placing bets on ballot outcomes, raising concerns that the lines between elections and sports would blur.

Re-assessing the October 2022 market crisis (vibes-based edition)

Seems legit

World - Financial Times - October 16

Why ‘Trump trades’ and ‘Harris trades’ could be just regular stock-market bets

Here’s what the S&P 500 sectors are really saying about their presidential election preference.

Business - MarketWatch - 2 days ago

NBA Power Rankings: Vibe check on all 30 teams

As we look at the teams who are setting the tone early in the season, it's clear that the Celtics and Thunder are a cut above their peers. Plus, the Bucks are a bummer.

Sports - Yahoo Sports - 6 days ago

A Top University Bet on D.E.I. What Went Wrong?

We cover the impact of college diversity programs.

Top stories - The New York Times - October 16

Why stocks are getting that same look they had just before the 2022 bear market

Key market indicators are breaking down, suggesting weakness ahead for stocks.

Business - MarketWatch - October 24

Here’s Why Meta Getting on the AI Search Bandwagon Could Change the Entire Online Ad Market

Meta is taking on Google and Microsoft by developing its own AI search engine. The repercussions for the digital advertising market could be huge.

Business - Inc. - 6 days ago

Election-betting odds are swaying some stock-market investors as Trump’s chances improve

Stock-market investors appear to be taking cues from shifts in betting markets that show a rising probability not only of Donald Trump winning the presidency on Nov. 5, but of Republicans also ...

Business - MarketWatch - October 24

Nate Silver: Don't trust the Trump swing in 2024 presidential election polls, betting markets data

Nate Silver is on record saying the presidential election momentum is with Donald Trump, but it's not because polling or markets data has him 100% convinced.

Business - CNBC - 5 days ago

Trump election odds tumble on betting markets after Iowa poll shows Harris lead

Harris is now the favorite on betting site Predictit.

Business - MarketWatch - 2 days ago

Why Raptors should get a head start on tanking after injury to All-Star Scottie Barnes

The 2025 draft class is worth bottoming out for, and now Toronto has an early excuse

Sports - CBS Sports - 5 days ago

Investors betting on Treasurys like it’s the 2016 election all over again could be making a big mistake

The market backdrop for this presidential election isn’t remotely like 2016, says Jamie Patton, co-head of global rates at TCW

Business - MarketWatch - 4 days ago

Why America's THAAD defense deployment to Israel is a 'gamble' in Iran conflict

Around 100 U.S. troops will soon be on active duty in Israel to help defend the country against the potent missile threat from Iran and its regional allies.

Stock-market investors have ‘no clear playbook’ for Harris election win. Here’s why.

A victory by Vice President Kamala Harris over Donald Trump next week might leave investors temporarily lost, says a closely followed Wall Street research analyst.

Business - MarketWatch - 6 days ago

Here’s Why Election Betting Activity Is Raising Eyebrows Ahead of the November 5 Vote

A sudden $30 million surge in election bets on a Trump win leads some observers to suspect an attempt to manipulate the election.

Business - Inc. - October 21

Ishiba’s election gamble: Japan’s PM fights to keep LDP on track

Reduced majority could impair the prime minister’s ability to tackle economic and demographic challenges

World - Financial Times - October 15

This Player Made Premier League History, but for All the Wrong Reasons

Harry Clarke scored an own goal, gave away a penalty and was sent off for Ipswich Town on his first full game for the team on Saturday.

Sports - The New York Times - October 27

Why Thomas Tuchel is a necessary quick fix for England -- and why England is a gamble for Tuchel

Thomas Tuchel's decision to take the England job is a surprising one, but it's a big bet by the storied manager on himself.

Sports - ESPN - October 17

NBA strikes agreement with gambling partners to remove under prop bets on lowest-paid players, per report

The NBA seems to be trying to avoid another Jontay Porter situation

Sports - CBS Sports - October 19

Take political betting markets literally, not seriously

Or is it the other way around?

World - Financial Times - October 21

Betting Markets Favor Trump. But Their Record of Accuracy Is Mixed.

Proponents believe that having real money on the line, and a large crowd of investors, encourages a more accurate election forecast than polling data can provide.

Top stories - The New York Times - October 25

Wall Street analysts get it wrong on two of our portfolio industrial stocks

New research from Wall Street analysts missed the mark on Stanley Black & Decker and DuPont.

Business - CNBC - October 21

Georgia-Texas controversy: Is it more important to get a call right or follow procedure?

Ironically, the call that went against Georgia and for Texas wound up helping the Bulldogs and hurting the Longhorns.

Sports - Yahoo Sports - October 21

Trump’s getting Harley-Davidson’s story wrong: It’s not about tariff skipping

As he tells the story, the iconic American company was forced to build bikes in India to get around its crushing import duty.

Politics - The Hill - October 24

Did VAR 'get it wrong' with West Ham penalty decision?

Match of the Day 2 pundits Micah Richards and Stephen Warnock analyse the controversial late penalty awarded to West Ham against Manchester United.

Why Thomas Tuchel Was the Right Choice for England. And the Wrong One, Too.

An outcry over the hiring of a German to lead England’s national team was predictable. But don’t dismiss every objection out of hand.

World - The New York Times - October 18

Why Aaron Judge has disappeared at exactly the wrong time for the Yankees

Judge has looked like anything but an MVP during this World Series. Let's go inside his issues.

Sports - ESPN - 6 days ago

US election betting is on a roll

In the months leading up to election day, people from around the world have placed millions of dollars in wagers on who will be the next American president

World - Financial Times - 6 days ago

NBA betting: Three futures bets to make on all 30 teams this season

While not every team is a contender, each one offers a chance to make a bet

Sports - ESPN - October 21

Why Chinese Are Rushing Into a ‘Casino’ Stock Market

Steps to bolster the economy have set off a stock buying frenzy. Our columnist spoke to Chinese investors about why they are jumping in knowing the risks.

Business - The New York Times - October 21

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