Election Odds Swing in Trump’s Favor on Polymarket, a Crypto Betting Site

Donald Trump, Elon Musk and CNN have cited election predictions from Polymarket, a betting site where crypto enthusiasts have wagered more than $100 million on who will win the presidency.

Business - The New York Times - October 25

FBI raids apartment of election betting site Polymarket's CEO and seizes cellphone, source says

The FBI seized a cellphone and other electronic devices of betting site Polymarket’s CEO Shayne Coplan in a raid on his New York City apartment early Wednesday.

French trader bet over $28 million on Trump election win using 4 Polymarket accounts

Supporters of Donald Trump, including Elon Musk, have touted shifting election odds on Polymarket even as polls largely show a tight race with Kamala Harris.

Business - CNBC - October 24

French trader bet over $28 million on Trump election win using 4 Polymarket accounts

A stark shift toward former President Donald Trump on the political gambling platform Polymarket this month stoked scrutiny about four accounts that have collectively spent over $28 million betting ...

Betting Markets Favor Trump. But Their Record of Accuracy Is Mixed.

Proponents believe that having real money on the line, and a large crowd of investors, encourages a more accurate election forecast than polling data can provide.

Top stories - The New York Times - October 25

Polymarket says the whale betting heavily on Trump is a French individual

The mystery bettor making large trades on former President Donald Trump to win the election on a cryptocurrency site is a French national who is doing so based on personal belief, the site ...

Business - MarketWatch - October 24

Nate Silver: Don't trust the Trump swing in 2024 presidential election polls, betting markets data

Nate Silver is on record saying the presidential election momentum is with Donald Trump, but it's not because polling or markets data has him 100% convinced.

Business - CNBC - October 31

Trump Is Betting Big on Musk’s Swing-State Moonshot

The candidate is leaning on an unusual canvassing effort funded by Elon Musk. If successful, it could usher in a new era when billionaires dominate ground campaigns.

Business - The New York Times - November 6

Bitcoin and Crypto, Promoted by Trump, Brace for Election Volatility

Many crypto investors hope that a victory for Donald Trump could propel the price of Bitcoin to new heights, though a loss could cause a fall.

Business - The New York Times - November 5

Trump tops list of crypto election victories

The cryptocurrency world is celebrating a successful operation to oust its critics and usher in a new cohort of allies up and down the ballot just two years after several scandals roiled the ...

Politics - The Hill - November 6

Is the pendulum swinging back in favor of remote working?

People working in tech are watching nervously as return-to-office mandates roll in. Here's where the issue stands.

Tech - VentureBeat - 3 days ago

Polymarket plans U.S. return after signaling Trump election win, founder says

Betting platform Polymarket halted U.S. operations in 2022, but plans to bring its prediction markets back to customers in the United States.

Business - CNBC - November 8

Was the Polymarket Trump whale smart or lucky?

Know thy neighbour, not thy trader

World - Financial Times - November 7

Election-betting odds are swaying some stock-market investors as Trump’s chances improve

Stock-market investors appear to be taking cues from shifts in betting markets that show a rising probability not only of Donald Trump winning the presidency on Nov. 5, but of Republicans also ...

Business - MarketWatch - October 24

Trump election odds tumble on betting markets after Iowa poll shows Harris lead

Harris is now the favorite on betting site Predictit.

Business - MarketWatch - November 3

Germany’s Scholz defies odds as party swings behind re-election bid

Chancellor gets unexpected popularity boost among Social Democrats after sacking finance minister

World - Financial Times - November 12

Dogecoin and other memecoins surge as Trump wins presidential election

Dogecoin surged more than 30% at one point after bitcoin rallied to a new all-time high.

Business - CNBC - November 6

Here's what Trump promised the crypto industry ahead of the election

Donald Trump branded himself as the pro-crypto candidate for president on the campaign trail.

Business - CNBC - November 6

Crypto Industry Lobbies Trump and His Allies After Election Wins

As Bitcoin soars to record highs, cryptocurrency executives are maneuvering to influence Donald J. Trump’s transition and secure their policy goals.

Business - The New York Times - November 13

Bitcoin surges 10% to a record above $76,000 as Trump victory heralds wider crypto adoption and weaker regulation

Crypto assets rose as investors bet that a second Trump administration will widen fiscal deficits and boost bitcoin as a hedge against higher inflation.

Business - CNBC - November 6

The French crypto whale looks to have made $47 million from his Trump bets

The French national who ran four interrelated accounts on the crypto betting site Polymarket has profited handsomely from his bets on former President Donald Trump.

Business - MarketWatch - November 6

Crypto's election wins

Welcome to The Hill's Technology newsletter {beacon} Technology Technology The Big Story Crypto wins big in election The crypto industry is celebrating after it gained a powerful White House ...

Politics - The Hill - November 6

Harris, Trump deadlocked across swing states in final days of election

Vice President Harris and former President Trump are deadlocked in key swing states just days before the presidential election, according to survey released Monday. Polling from Emerson College ...

Politics - The Hill - November 4

Trump and Harris make final push to break US election deadlock

Presidential candidates descend on Pennsylvania as polls in most crucial swing state show a dead heat

Business - Financial Times - November 5

How Trump Media’s Stock Could Swing After the Election

No stock is more directly linked to the outcome than Trump Media & Technology Group, the parent company of Truth Social.

Business - The New York Times - November 5

FirstFT: Donald Trump on course to reclaim the White House

Also in today’s newsletter, Benjamin Netanyahu fires defence minister and Big Oil’s dirty legacy in Nigeria

World - Financial Times - November 6

Election 2024 updates: With Arizona, Trump sweeps all 7 swing states

Follow 538 and ABC News for live updates on the presidential election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, and key races for U.S. Senate, House, governor and more.

Don’t take the betting market odds on Tuesday’s U.S. election too seriously

This year’s U.S. presidential election has suddenly made betting on politics a topic of mainstream conversation.

Business - MarketWatch - November 4

Billions were bet on election odds using online markets

Election betting platforms brought in billions of dollars as users wagered on who would win Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election.

Election Betting Markets See Vindication in Trump Victory

Prediction markets, which surged to prominence during the presidential campaign, started reflecting a likely Trump win several weeks ago, even as opinion polls showed a tight race.

Business - The New York Times - November 6

A look at crypto's impact on the 2024 election

A new bloc of voters is emerging and they could sway the 2024 race. With one in five Americans owning cryptocurrency, this group's preferences could have an impact in battleground states. ...

Trump is favored to win, despite his campaign

If Kamala Harris and the Democrats were ever thinking beating Trump would be easy, they were gaslighting themselves.

Politics - The Hill - October 31

Bitcoin hits $80,000 for the first time as crypto traders bask in Trump election victory

Cryptocurrencies extended their rally on Sunday, with bitcoin touching $80,000 for the first time ever.

Business - CNBC - November 10

Will the election swing the economy?

Welcome to The Hill's Business & Economy newsletter {beacon} Business & Economy Business & Economy The Big Story The economy could be the election’s make-or-break issue The results of the ...

Politics - The Hill - November 5

Trump’s lead over Harris in betting market erodes as platforms tighten odds

Top platforms had placed Republican ahead but Democrat is catching up and even leads on one app. US election 2024 live: latest polls, results and updates Betting markets have narrowed ...

World - The Guardian - November 4

US election live updates: Harris and Trump hold duelling Pittsburgh rallies in final hours of campaigning

Harris says ‘momentum is on our side’ at Pennsylvania rally while Trump celebrates endorsement from podcaster Joe Rogan. Trump and Harris visit key states in final day of campaigning Don’t miss ...

World - The Guardian - November 5

Why I was wrong about the US election

Economics, ‘vibeonomics’ and the Trump swing

World - Financial Times - November 14

Robinhood is joining the election-betting party by offering wagers on Harris and Trump

With the U.S. presidential election a week away, another brokerage is letting people bet on whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will win.

Business - MarketWatch - October 28

Latest in Election Odds Swing in Trump’s Favor on Polymarket, a Crypto Betting Site